原油：空单继续持有

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report suggests that investors should continue to hold short positions in crude oil. The current trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3][10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Crude Oil Price Quotes - NYMEX crude oil rose by $0.21 per barrel, a 0.33% increase, to $63.34 per barrel. - ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 01 fell by $0.14 per barrel, a -0.22% decrease, to $63.20 per barrel. - SC2601 crude oil futures closed up by 5.00 yuan per barrel, a 1.11% increase, to 455.90 yuan per barrel [3]. 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage Analysis - Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage: All light crude oil arbitrage windows flowing into USGC are deeply closed, indicating that US domestic crude oil has a cost - advantage over imported Middle - Eastern light crude oil. For coking refineries, there are selective opportunities for some heavy crude oils [4]. - Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage: Arbitrage opportunities in this region are differentiated. North Sea Forties, Algerian Saharan Blend, and Russian Urals have economic viability, especially Urals due to geopolitical price discounts [5]. - North - Western Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage: Trans - Atlantic light crude oil arbitrage windows are slightly open, but the economic viability is generally weak, indicating that multiple light crude oils in the European market have a slight cost - advantage over local Forties crude oil [6]. - Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage: All arbitrage windows flowing into the Mediterranean are deeply closed. Urals maintains an absolute cost - advantage in this region [7]. - Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage: For cracking refineries, ESPO crude oil is highly competitive. For coking refineries, there are significant opportunities, with South American heavy crude oil Napo having very prominent economic viability [8]. 3.3 Key Market News - OPEC + agreed to maintain the 2026 oil production quota and establish a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum oil production capacity. Eight OPEC + countries will suspend production increases from January to March 2026 due to seasonal reasons [11]. - Iran is seeking to restore its military potential and re - arm regional forces to confront Israel [11]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2, with a previous value of 49 and an expected value of 49.3 [11]. - The US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset said he would be "very happy to serve" if nominated as the Fed Chairman [11]. - US fighter jets circled near the Venezuelan coast, and the Venezuelan Defense Minister said "war is coming" [11].