对二甲苯：PXN持续走扩，高位震荡市、PTA：单边高位震荡市、MEG：多MEG空PTA持有

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Bullish on PX and bearish on BZ, hold the long PX - short BZ position, and maintain the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position [4] - PTA: Hold the long PX - short PTA position, and maintain the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position [5] - MEG: Hold the long MEG - short PTA position, focus on the calendar spread long position [5] 2. Core Views - The PXN spread of PX continues to widen, and the market is in a high - level volatile state; PTA is in a high - level volatile state; hold the long MEG - short PTA position [1] - PX supply is expected to shrink, while PTA demand has increased, and the PX - MX spread has widened; PTA prices are supported by PX at the cost end and are in a high - level volatile state, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain; MEG supply is tightening, and the price is oscillating in the range of 3800 - 4000, with the upside space not yet opened [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures Prices: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures yesterday were 6830, 4700, 3885, 6250, and 453.9 respectively, with daily changes of 112, 68, 12, 88, and 6.3, and daily changes of 1.67%, 1.47%, 0.31%, 1.43%, and 1.41% respectively [2] - Futures Calendar Spreads: The closing prices of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 calendar spreads yesterday were - 28, - 52, - 93, - 110, and - 0.5 respectively, with daily changes of 8, 2, - 20, - 30, and - 1 respectively [2] - Spot Prices: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were 836.33 dollars/ton, 4635 yuan/ton, 3879 yuan/ton, 571.5 dollars/ton, and 64.44 dollars/barrel respectively, with daily changes of 10, 20, - 10, 5.5, and 0.15 respectively [2] - Spot Processing Margins: The spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil yesterday were 260.33, 199.25, 226.6, 79.25, and - 4.34 respectively, with daily changes of - 11.04, - 16.67, 9.65, 8.6, and 0 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - US textile and apparel imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year in August. In September 2025, the total retail sales decreased by 0.66% month - on - month and increased by 5.42% year - on - year after seasonal adjustment, and the core retail sales decreased by 0.49% month - on - month and increased by 5.72% year - on - year. In October, the total retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year, and the core retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month and 4.89% year - on - year [2] - Japan's textile and apparel imports in September were 477.893 billion yen, a month - on - month increase of 13.56% and a year - on - year increase of 6.62%. In October, it was 473.239 billion yen, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97% and a year - on - year increase of 3.03%. From January to September, the total imports were 3,587.466 billion yen, a year - on - year increase of 3.51%, and from January to October, it was 4,060.705 billion yen, a year - on - year increase of 3.45% [3] - The EU's textile and apparel imports in September were 11.282 billion euros, a month - on - month increase of 10.93% and a year - on - year increase of 0.32%. From January to September, the total imports were 93.165 billion euros, a year - on - year increase of 6.67% [3] - The UK's textile and apparel imports in September were 2.016 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 2.57% and a year - on - year increase of 12.87%. From January to September, the total imports were 16.167 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 6.06% [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is - 1, indicating a bearish view; the trend intensity of PTA is - 1, also indicating a bearish view; the trend intensity of MEG is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] 3.4 Views and Suggestions - PX: Hold the long PX - short BZ position and the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position. The domestic PX operating rate remains at 88.5% (- 1%), and the supply is expected to shrink due to planned maintenance of some devices. The PTA operating rate has increased, and the PX - MX spread has widened [4] - PTA: Hold the long PX - short PTA position and the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position. The PTA operating rate has increased to 73.7% (+1.6%), the polyester operating rate remains high at 91.5% (+0.2%), and the price is in a high - level volatile state, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain [5] - MEG: Hold the long MEG - short PTA position, focus on the calendar spread long position. The coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate has increased to 72% (+6.2%), the overall supply is tightening due to planned maintenance of some devices, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The price is oscillating in the range of 3800 - 4000, with the upside space not yet opened [5]