贵金属：贵金属日报2025-12-01-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Silver has entered the accelerated topping phase, and it is expected that there will still be significant intraday price increases next week. Pay attention to the pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg above. If the price weakens during the day, timely profit - taking is required. Opening new long positions or short - selling at high levels at this stage carry relatively high risks [2][3]. - Shanghai Gold is still in a breakthrough pattern at the end of the triangular convergence. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 12,366 - 14,500 yuan/kg, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 927 - 982 yuan/g [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Gold: COMEX gold closed at $4,256.40 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.44%. Shanghai Gold closed at 959.82 yuan/g, up 0.97%. The trading volume of COMEX gold decreased by 19.20% to 149,900 lots, and the trading volume of Shanghai Gold decreased by 32.04% to 235,300 lots. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index was 99.49 [2][5]. - Silver: COMEX silver closed at $57.09 per ounce, with a daily increase of 6.18%. Shanghai Silver closed at 13,191.00 yuan/kg, up 5.17%. The trading volume of COMEX silver decreased by 11.08% to 2,034,400 lots, and the trading volume of Shanghai Silver increased by 44.53% to 1,248,780 tons [2][5]. 3.2 Reasons for Silver's Accelerated Rise - Historically, silver price increases driven by the Fed's monetary policy often show a "two - stage" pattern. In the second stage of each rise, international silver prices tend to rise rapidly, with single - day positive line increases of over 5%. The current technical trend of silver clearly conforms to the characteristics of the second - stage rise in previous cycles. The first stage of the current silver rise was from August 22 to October 6, and the second stage is from November 7 to the present [2]. - As of Friday's close, the position of COMEX silver December contract was 9,866 lots, equivalent to 1,534 tons. The total inventory of COMEX silver is currently 14,207 tons, at a high level in the same period of the past five years under the influence of Trump's tariff policy expectations in the first half of the year. Even if some positions are locked by ETFs, the current overseas position and inventory levels still do not indicate "delivery difficulties" [2]. 3.3 Investment Strategies - Silver: Since the silver price has entered the accelerated rise stage, focus on the upper pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, timely profit - taking is required. Opening new long positions or short - selling at high levels at this stage carry relatively high risks. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 12,366 - 14,500 yuan/kg [3]. - Gold: Shanghai Gold is still in a breakthrough pattern at the end of the triangular convergence. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 927 - 982 yuan/g [3]. 3.4 Data Tables and Charts - Multiple data tables and charts are provided, including the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and other data, as well as the relationship between gold and silver prices and factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and the comparison of domestic and foreign prices [5][7][9][11][15][17][19][26][28][30][38][42][46][49][51][53].