国信证券晨会纪要-20251201

Macro and Strategy - The report highlights a significant shift in China's economic growth engine from the secondary industry to the more promising tertiary industry (services) in 2025, with a focus on expanding domestic consumption as the main driver of demand [8][9] - The concept of "anti-involution" is introduced, emphasizing the need to control supply while expanding demand, particularly in the physical product sector, which is crucial for optimizing supply and enhancing new productive forces [8][9] - The interdependence between the service and manufacturing sectors is emphasized, where manufacturing acts as an incubator for productive services, and the growth of services creates a substantial market for manufactured goods [8][10] Industry and Company Insights - The public and environmental protection industry report indicates that the Ministry of Finance has preemptively allocated the first batch of ecological and environmental protection funds for 2026, and there is an analysis of the electricity trading plan in Sichuan for 2026 [3] - The electronic industry report discusses the resonance between AI computing power and terminal innovation, suggesting that PCB (Printed Circuit Board) technology is reshaping high-density connectivity [3] - The agricultural industry report notes a steady increase in beef prices, indicating a positive outlook for the meat and dairy cycle [3] - The financial engineering report highlights the performance of various investment strategies, with a focus on small-cap growth stocks outperforming [3][20] Market Trends - The report provides an overview of major market indices, noting that the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.59 points, with a slight increase of 0.34% [2] - The bond market experienced a significant correction, with short-term bonds remaining stable due to central bank liquidity support, while long-term bonds faced fluctuations due to policy concerns [12][18] - The REITs market is expanding, with the report indicating that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated a pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, which is a key step in diversifying the REITs market [20][24]