豆粕月报：美豆进口加速，豆粕期价震荡整理-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - China's procurement demand supports the CBOT soybean futures, while large domestic soybean crushing volume suppresses domestic soybean meal futures prices. The soybean meal futures prices are expected to remain range - bound [9][10][32] Summary by Directory Market Review - In November 2025, the soybean meal futures prices fluctuated. The weighted soybean meal rose 0.20% to close at 2946, and the weighted rapeseed meal rose 2.79% to close at 2433. In the international market, the continuous US soybean contract rose 1.55% to close at 1132.25, and the US soybean meal fell 0.22% to close at 322.70 [6][11] Fundamental Analysis - US Soybean: The November USDA report lowered the 2025/26 US soybean production forecast to 4.253 billion bushels, with a predicted yield of 53.0 bushels per acre. The export target was reduced by 50 million bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was expected to be 290 million bushels [14] - Global Soybean: The 2025/26 global soybean production is expected to be 421.75 million tons, a decrease of 4.1 million tons from the September forecast and a 1.3% year - on - year decrease. The global soybean crush volume was adjusted down to 364.98 million tons, while the export volume was slightly increased to 187.97 million tons. The ending inventory was reduced by 2 million tons to 121.99 million tons, with an inventory - to - use ratio of 20% [17] - Domestic Situation: As of November 23, 2025, the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.0565 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 102,000 tons. As of November 28, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 248.82 yuan per head. As of October 2025, the feed production was 29.57 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.3% [20][21][22] Cross - Variety Analysis - As of November 28, 2025, the domestic soybean crushing profit in Heilongjiang was 97.85 yuan per ton, while the soybean crushing profit in Jiangsu was - 60.5 yuan per ton. The ratio of the main futures contracts of Dalian soybean oil and soybean meal was 2.71, at a historical average level. The ratio of the main futures contracts of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal and Dalian soybean meal was 0.81, with a price difference of - 592 yuan per ton [25][27][28] Future Outlook - China has been purchasing US soybeans since late October, with at least 50 ships expected to be bought, which supports the CBOT soybean futures. However, restrictions on Brazilian companies may affect soybean imports from Brazil. The sowing of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season started early but has slowed down recently, and the sowing progress in Argentina is slow. There is a high probability of a weak La Nina weather pattern in December, which may lead to less rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina. The Brazilian soybean premium has been fluctuating downwards, while the US soybean premium is relatively stable. If there is no significant production reduction expectation, the market is expected to enter a window for trading the pressure of Brazilian soybean harvest from December to January next year. The domestic short - term spot pressure is still high, and the inventory is expected to decline seasonally. Currently, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and the inventory reduction of soybean meal is slow, but the high livestock inventory and high cost - effectiveness of soybean meal in feed support strong提货, and feed enterprises have a certain demand for replenishing inventory [9][29][32]