Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are favored in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be observed without chasing high prices [1][7][8]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is suitable for short - term range trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions at high levels after a rebound; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][14]. - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1][19][21]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is for range - bound trading; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; jujubes are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1][27][29]. - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs in the near - term are in a weak adjustment at low levels, and caution is advised when chasing high prices in the far - term; eggs' price increase is restricted; corn suggests hedging on rallies; soybean meal is mainly for range trading; oils are expected to stop falling and rebound, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][31][35]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes each product's situation in detail, including factors such as production, consumption, inventory, and policy, and offers corresponding investment strategies [1]. Summaries by Category Macro Finance - Index Futures: China's November official manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the external environment improved. However, the market's main line rotates quickly, so index futures may trade sideways. In the medium to long term, they are favored, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5]. - Treasury Bonds: After continuous callbacks, the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year active bonds have basically retreated to the level before the announcement of treasury bond trading operations. The market may focus on the actual scale of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations at the end of the month. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The coal mine market is in a continuous price - cut trend, with weak demand. Market participants are generally in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended for range trading [8]. - Rebar: The futures price of rebar strengthened last Friday. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period. The supply and demand contradiction is not significant, and the price increase and decrease drivers are both weak. It is recommended for range trading [8]. - Glass: The suspension of production rumors caused the futures price to rebound, but the social inventory pressure of glass is huge, and the demand is gradually weakening at the end of the year. It is not advisable to chase high prices for the near - term contract, and it is necessary to wait for the peak - forming signal [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The safety situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is complex and severe. The market consumption has shown a good momentum recently, and the social inventory has decreased. The long - term demand for copper is still optimistic, but in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the suppression of consumption by high copper prices and the pressure brought by changes in the Fed's policy expectations. It is recommended for short - term range trading [11]. - Aluminum: The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. The supply of imported ore is expected to increase in December, and the price may be under pressure. The demand is gradually entering the off - season. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels after a rebound [12]. - Nickel: The price of nickel ore remains firm, and the supply of nickel ore may be relatively loose. The refined nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel iron has limited upward space. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies moderately [15]. - Tin: The domestic refined tin production increased in October, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand [15]. - Silver and Gold: Fed officials' dovish speeches have increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Precious metals prices have rebounded. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver and be cautious about new positions, and to conduct range trading in gold [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is in a tight balance, and the downstream demand is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the mining license in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde lithium mine. It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [19]. Energy Chemicals - PVC: The cost is in a low - profit state, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export support may weaken. The overall supply and demand is still weak, but it has a low valuation. It is expected to be in a weak sideways trend [19]. - Caustic Soda: The alumina end has high production and high inventory, compressing profits. The supply of caustic soda is high in winter. It is recommended to wait and watch [21]. - Soda Ash: The spot trading is stable, and the upstream has a strong mentality of holding prices. The supply is expected to shrink, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and watch [27]. - Styrene: The overseas blending logic is difficult to change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is mainly in a sideways trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [21]. - Rubber: The supply is expected to increase in the peak - season, and the terminal demand improvement is weak. However, there may be speculation about the shortage of delivery products. It is recommended for range trading [22]. - Urea: The daily output has increased, the agricultural fertilizer demand is gradually weakening, and the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises has increased. The inventory is in a state of high production and high inventory. It is expected to be in a sideways trend [23]. - Methanol: The domestic supply has recovered, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has increased slightly, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to be in a sideways trend [24]. - Polyolefins: The inventory has continued to decline, mainly due to downstream replenishment at low prices. The demand is in a state where the peak season has ended, and the upward pressure is large. PE is expected to trade sideways in the range, and PP is expected to be in a weak sideways trend [25]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand data is relatively loose, but the recent strong yarn price has driven the rebound of cotton. It is expected to trade sideways [27]. - PTA: The international oil price has fallen, and the PTA price is in a low - level sideways trend. The supply and demand is in a state of inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 4500 - 4800 [27]. - Apples: The trading of late - Fuji apples on the ground and in storage is coming to an end. The price is expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend [29]. - Jujubes: The acquisition progress of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is about 40% - 50%, and the enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is average. The price is expected to be in a weak sideways trend [29]. Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure still exists, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the medium to long term, the production capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the equilibrium level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and be cautious about bullish in the far - term [32]. - Eggs: In the short term, the spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures price trades in a range. In the medium term, the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved. In the long term, the production capacity clearance still takes time. It is necessary to pay attention to external factors [34]. - Corn: In the short term, the market supply slowdown supports the spot price rebound, but the terminal demand recovery is limited. In the medium to long term, the cost has strong support, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [34]. - Soybean Meal: The U.S. soybean price is supported at 1120 cents, and the domestic supply from November to January is abundant. It is mainly for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points for the November - January basis [35]. - Oils: In the short term, the three major oils are expected to stop falling and rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to potential positive factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data [40].
2025年12月01日：期货市场交易指引-20251201
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-12-01 01:42