Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the domestic corn futures market was strong, with the main contract price rising in a volatile manner and hitting a new high at the end of the month. The spot price first declined and then rose sharply, with regional supply - demand differentiation leading the market. The market's bullish sentiment was strong, but towards the end of the month, the upward momentum slowed. There is potential selling pressure from new grain in the Northeast, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is limited. Caution is needed for a potential market decline [5][7][8]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - In November 2025, the domestic corn futures market was strong. As of November 28, the main contract C2601 closed at 2,244 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, with a trading volume of 550,428 lots and an open interest of 959,620 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 447.75 cents/bushel, up 0.56% [5][12][17]. (2) Spot Price - In November, the national average corn price was 2,237 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month and up 3.18% year - on - year. In the Northeast, prices were strong; in North China, prices were high due to tight supply - demand; in the sales areas, prices continued to rise. The price increases in different regions were significant [7][21][23]. (3) Basis - As of November 28, the basis of the Dalian corn main contract was 46 yuan/ton. In November, the basis recovered from a low and expanded, with the increase in spot prices exceeding that of futures prices [25]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - Multiple aspects of information are included, such as China's corn imports from Russia, grain production in India, corn consumption and exports in the US, grain exports in Ukraine, corn planting progress in Argentina and Brazil, and corn procurement results of Sinograin [27][28][31]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) Sinograin Corn Auction - In November, Sinograin conducted 74 corn procurement auctions, with a planned trading volume of 1,168,999 tons and an actual成交 volume of 415,790 tons, a成交 rate of 35.57%. It also conducted 4 corn sales auctions, with all 8,539 tons planned for trading being sold. There were no two - way trading or imported corn auctions [43][45]. (2) North - South Port Corn Inventory - As of November 21, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.156 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9025 million tons. The domestic and foreign trade corn inventories at Guangdong Port were 284,000 tons and 315,000 tons respectively [51]. (3) Feed Enterprise Inventory - As of November 28, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.83 days, up 3.73 days from October, a month - on - month increase of 15.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [55]. (4) Feed Market - In October 2025, the national industrial feed production was 2.907 million tons, down 4.2% month - on - month and up 3.6% year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed decreased year - on - year [58]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Inventory - As of November 26, the total corn inventory of major domestic corn processing enterprises was 2.698 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% [62]. (6) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Consumption - In November 2025, the estimated corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises was 5.93 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons from the previous month and 50,000 tons from the same period last year [67]. (7) Deep - processing Enterprise Startup Rate - In November, the startup rate of the corn starch industry continued to rise. The total output of 60 corn starch production enterprises was 1.3885 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 109,500 tons. The startup rate was 64.03%, up 5.05% month - on - month and down 6.3% year - on - year [71]. (8) Deep - processing Enterprise Profit - In November, the profits of corn starch enterprises improved. The average profits of corn starch hedging by - products in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang increased month - on - month [77]. (9) Import and Export - In October 2025, the corn import volume was 360,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500.00% and a year - on - year increase of 43.10%. The export volume was only 52,607 tons [80]. 4.关联品情况 (1) Corn Starch - In November, the average national corn starch price was 2,690 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from October. The firm corn price provided support, and the decline in syrup demand was offset by other industries. The rising prices of cassava and wheat starch boosted the substitution demand for corn starch [88]. (2) Pigs - In November, the average pig slaughter price was 11.67 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from October, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.57%. The market was in a downward trend, and although there was some support from pickling demand in December, supply - side pressure remained [92]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 - The corn futures and spot prices rose in tandem in November, but the upward momentum slowed towards the end of the month. There is potential selling pressure from new grain in the Northeast, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is limited. Attention should be paid to the potential market decline. - Operational strategy: For single - side trading, gradually reduce long positions to avoid high - level callback risks; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][93][94].
新陈交接下价格先抑后扬，区域供需分化主导行情
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-12-01 01:42