交银国际每日晨报-20251201

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for a year-end market rally in Hong Kong stocks, driven by domestic policy support and expectations for a "New Year" market [1][2] - Key focus areas include the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the Federal Reserve's December meeting, which will influence market sentiment and liquidity conditions [2][3] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,946, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 29.15% [4] - Southbound capital inflows have reached a historical high for the year, with a shift towards resilient growth sectors [1][4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index is near historical averages, suggesting favorable conditions for upward movement in the market [1] Key Variables to Monitor - The Central Economic Work Conference's announcements regarding deficit rates and consumption stimulus policies will be crucial for market risk appetite [2] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting will determine whether the last interest rate cut of the year will occur, with market expectations divided between a pause or further cuts [2] - Year-end portfolio adjustments by institutions may lead to increased volatility in certain sectors due to liquidity constraints [2] Tactical Positioning - The report suggests a tactical increase in exposure to sectors that are expected to benefit from policy expectations and year-end positioning [3] - Recommended stocks for December include: - Prosperity Industrial Trust (778 HK) - NVIDIA (NVDA US) - Shenzhou International (2313 HK) - Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) [3]