聚烯烃：聚乙烯能否上演2020年3月的急跌行情？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2020 polyethylene market crash was driven by a combination of global demand "freezing" due to the pandemic and a collapse in crude oil costs, a macro - systematic risk - driven unilateral strategy. The current market's core contradiction is a structural one of "high inventory" and "weak reality", and short - selling polyethylene unilaterally at low valuations has low cost - effectiveness. It is recommended to participate in the LL2601 - 2605 reverse spread strategy, with potential profits coming from the relative strength changes between near - and far - month contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 From the perspective of the futures - spot structure - In 2025, the PE futures - spot structure has changed from flat to Backwardation, indicating greater pressure on far - month contracts, but the market has a repair expectation for the long - term. In this structure, near - month contracts are more likely to decline slowly or stagnate, and a market collapse rarely occurs due to near - month factors. Collapses usually happen in the Contango structure. Thus, short - selling near - month polyethylene contracts unilaterally carries significant risks [3]. 3.2 From the perspective of cost and valuation - The valuation of polyethylene relative to crude oil is at a low level, with oil - based profits compressed and coal - based profits turning negative. Low valuation acts as a safety cushion rather than a driver for price decline. Unless the cost side (crude oil) experiences a collapse similar to that in 2020, the downward price space of PE will be limited by cost support. Currently, there are no signs of a price war in the OPEC+ crude oil market, so such a condition is not met [3]. 3.3 From the perspective of supply and inventory - High inventory is the result of the core contradiction, but high maintenance is alleviating the current supply pressure, and inventory has started to decline. Historically, a reverse spread strategy in a high - inventory environment is a classic one. The reduction of high inventory through maintenance means active adjustment on the supply side, which buffers the pressure of a price crash. In 2020, it was passive inventory accumulation with extremely serious supply - demand imbalance. The 2026 polyethylene production plan shows that the overall growth rate is similar to that in 2025, but it is concentrated in the second half of the year, and there are unprecedented positive factors for the supply side of the 2605 contract [4]. 3.4 From the perspective of price difference seasonality - In 2024, high maintenance of LL standard products led to an "inverse seasonal positive spread" (i.e., the 1 - 5 price difference strengthened), indicating a deviation between the current market's core contradiction (maintenance) and the regular seasonality (peak demand season). For the LL2601 - 2605 spread, if inventory reduction is less than expected after the maintenance season, the pressure on the near - month 2501 contract will be much greater than that on the far - month 2505 contract, providing a logical basis for a reverse spread strategy. However, the market is more likely to see the near - month contract decline slowly or have a much smaller increase than the far - month contract, rather than a full - scale crash like in 2020 [5]. 3.5 Profit path and market performance of the reverse spread strategy - The profit path of the short - LL2601, long - LL2605 reverse spread strategy may come from the weak performance of the near - month LL2601 contract due to high inventory and weak reality, and the support for the far - month LL2605 contract from cost, a production capacity launch window period, and improved expectations, combined with seasonal factors. The market is more likely to experience a mild and structural price difference convergence rather than a "waterfall - style" market accompanied by a sharp decline in absolute prices [34].