电解铝期货品种周报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile performance in the coming week, driven by factors such as the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in early December, the setback in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement, concerns about the high concentration of overseas copper resources, and the low historical level of the aluminum - copper ratio [5][12]. - In the medium - term, the aluminum price is expected to be in a moderately strong and volatile trend, and the strategy is to hold long positions and wait for price increases [5]. - By the end of the year, the rigid constraints on the supply side prevent a significant decline in the aluminum price, but the demand side enters the off - season and the differentiation intensifies, which restricts the rise of the aluminum price. It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: Moderately strong and volatile. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in early December, the setback in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement, concerns about the high concentration of overseas copper resources, and the low historical level of the aluminum - copper ratio have pushed the aluminum price to stop falling and rebound [5]. - Strategy Suggestion: Hold long positions and wait for price increases [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main 2601 contract was expected to be in the range of 21,000 - 21,700 in the coming week [8]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is advisable to hold long positions with a light position due to increased volatility, and spot enterprises are suggested to appropriately increase inventory [9]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - Supply Side - Bauxite Market: The cumulative import volume growth rate of bauxite this year is higher than the cumulative production growth rate of alumina. The bauxite market is in a state of oversupply, and the subsequent overall supply is expected to increase steadily [10]. - Alumina Market: As of November 28, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity is about 97.4 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 86.06%. In 2026, the new alumina production capacity is about 14.4 million tons/year, mainly concentrated in the first half of next year. The supply - demand contradiction of alumina is still severe [10]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In October, the domestic built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was about 45.7165 million tons, the operating capacity was about 44.5593 million tons, and the aluminum water ratio was about 74%. The global aluminum supply has entered a stage of low growth [10]. - Import and Export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,900 yuan/ton. In October, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was about 503,000 tons, which is at the average level in recent years [10]. - Demand Side - Aluminum Profiles: The domestic aluminum profile industry's operating rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 52.5% this week. The construction profile market is sluggish, the growth of automobile profiles is difficult to find, and the export orders of photovoltaic profiles are good [11]. - Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises remained stable at 66.4%. It is expected to continue to decline in December. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 70.4% and is expected to remain stable in December [11]. - Aluminum Cables: The weekly operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 0.6 percentage points to 63% this week, and it is expected that the enterprise's on - hand orders will increase in December [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.2% this week, and the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry increased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.5%. However, the subsequent improvement space is limited [11]. - Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 595,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% from last week and an increase of about 7% from the same period last year. The in - plant inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the outbound volume has increased since mid - November. The aluminum rod inventory is 131,600 tons, a decrease of about 3% from last week and an increase of about 37% from the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly by about 2% from last week and is about 23% lower than the same period last year [11]. - Profit - Alumina: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the recent month is about 2,800 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about 50 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main contract is - 100 yuan/ton [12]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,950 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 4,400 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The import price of bauxite continued to be under pressure, the coal price declined slightly, the alumina price remained stable, and the prices of other industrial links also showed different degrees of change [13]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The domestic port bauxite inventory increased slightly, the alumina inventory continued to accumulate, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly [17][18]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of downstream processed materials increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.3% this week. The industry will continue to be stable in the short term, but the recovery space in some fields is limited [27]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a normal market structure with higher prices in the far - term and lower prices in the near - term, and the spot price has a premium over the near - month contract, showing a U - shaped structure [30]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,040 yuan/ton, and the current spread has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [33][35]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position of the LME aluminum variety is near the high level since April 2022. The latest net long position of the fund decreased slightly, and both the long and short camps reduced their positions. Overall, overseas funds are still dominated by the long side [37]. - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The net long position of the main contract of SHFE electrolytic aluminum remained stable this week. Both the long and short sides continued to reduce their positions since mid - November. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds remained stable, and the funds of mid - and downstream enterprises were in a stalemate between long and short [40].