宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年12月1日）-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on the futures of coking coal and coke, suggesting an overall oscillatory approach for both [1] - For coking coal, the supply side is the core factor driving the market, with supply improving marginally and limited further downside expected [5] - For coke, the weakening cost support and inventory increase lead to a weakening trend, and attention should be paid to coal mine production cuts in December [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal 2601, the short - term, medium - term views are oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the reference view is an oscillatory approach. The core logic is supply improvement and continuous decline [1] - For coke 2601, the short - term, medium - term views are oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and bearish, and the reference view is an oscillatory approach. The core logic is weakening cost support and weak operation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector 3.2.1 Coking Coal (JM) - The intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is an oscillatory approach [5] - The core logic is that the supply side dominates the market. Energy supply guarantee reduces the expectation of anti - involution measures, production is not affected by inspections, and imports are accelerating, leading to a supply improvement since November. However, considering the Politburo economic meeting and year - end production cut expectations, the further decline space is limited [5] 3.2.2 Coke (J) - The intraday view is oscillatory and bearish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is an oscillatory approach [6] - As of November 28, the combined daily production of coking plants and steel mills increased by 1.19 million tons week - on - week, the daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 million tons week - on - week, and the steel mill profitability decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 35.06%. The overall inventory increased by 4.05 million tons week - on - week. The weakening of coking coal market drags down the coke futures, and attention should be paid to coal mine production cuts in December [6]