东吴证券晨会纪要-20251201

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that in 2026, China's economy is expected to grow steadily, with inflation gradually improving and corporate profits likely to continue rising after a turning point in 2025. Global liquidity is anticipated to remain loose, and the relationship between China and the US may stabilize in the short term but could experience increased volatility in the long term. The AI industry trend is expected to drive changes in both upstream supply and downstream demand within the technology-related industrial chain [1][7]. - The overall preference ranking for major asset classes is stocks > commodities (industrial products) > gold > exchange rates > bonds [1][7]. - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 predicts a 4.9% growth in China's economy, with investment recovery and a slight increase in CPI by 0.5% while PPI is expected to decline by 0.9% [1][7]. Fixed Income Strategy - The credit bond market is characterized by both opportunities and risks in supply and demand, with three main strategies focusing on liquidity, the pace of economic recovery, and regulatory policy changes [2][9]. - The strategy suggests a defensive approach with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds while selectively engaging in long-term bonds for potential trading opportunities [2][9]. - The city investment bond sector is expected to maintain a "zero tolerance" regulatory stance, with ongoing adjustments to meet new development models, leading to a tight balance in financing [2][9]. Industry Insights Starry Technology (星宸科技) - Starry Technology is a leading global smart security chip company, focusing on the development and sales of smart security chips across three main areas: smart security, smart IoT, and smart automotive [11]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.354 billion yuan and a net profit of 256 million yuan in 2024, with a research and development expense ratio of 25.59% and a gross margin of 35.79% [11]. - Starry Technology holds a leading market share in IPC SoC and NVR SoC, with respective market shares of 36.5% and 38.7% in 2021 [11]. Zhongli Co., Ltd. (中力股份) - Zhongli Co., Ltd. is a global leader in electric forklifts, focusing on the green and intelligent development of material handling [12]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 910 million yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 15, and 13 times [12][13]. - The company benefits from the industry's electrification trend and is well-positioned for growth in the context of automation and intelligent logistics solutions [12][13]. Suzhou Keda (苏州科达) - Suzhou Keda is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in line with the Belt and Road Initiative, and is involved in various international safety and information projects [14]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its product offerings, including smart video surveillance and communication systems [14]. - Despite short-term pressures on performance, the company is expected to recover as it capitalizes on AI integration and overseas expansion [14]. Sutech (速腾聚创) - Sutech has shown significant improvement in gross margins, particularly in its robotics segment, which is expected to enter a high-growth phase [15][16]. - The company reported a revenue of 4.07 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a notable increase in sales from its robotics products [15][16]. - The focus on product iteration and market expansion positions Sutech for long-term growth potential in the robotics industry [15][16].