氧化铝周报：基本面未见改善，氧化铝延续弱势-20251201

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - The alumina market fundamentals have not improved, and the price is expected to remain weak due to sufficient short - term supply, significant imports, and high inventory levels. The supply side has increased, while the demand growth is limited, and there is no large - scale production cut plan for now. Attention should be paid to changes in the alumina supply side [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the alumina futures (active) price dropped from 2713 yuan/ton to 2707 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price decreased from 2858 yuan/ton to 2856 yuan/ton; the spot premium increased from 164 yuan/ton to 183 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB price fell from 320 dollars/ton to 313.5 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss changed from - 6.92 yuan/ton to 50.13 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased by 7503 tons to 258413 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse remained at 0 tons. The prices of domestic and imported bauxite remained stable [3] 2. Market Review - The main alumina futures contract fell 0.22% last week, closing at 2707 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was 2856 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic bauxite supply shortage will continue, and the import bauxite price is expected to be under pressure. The alumina supply increased last week. As of November 27, the built - in capacity was 11480 million tons, the operating capacity was 9630 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.89%. The demand for alumina increased slightly, but the spot trading was weak. The futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2159 tons to 257000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4] 3. Market Outlook - The domestic bauxite supply is tight, while the imported bauxite from Guinea is abundant, with port ore inventory of about 29.5 million tons. The alumina operating capacity increased by 400000 tons to 96.3 million tons last week. The electrolytic aluminum industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with rigid consumption. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7503 tons to 258000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons. The alumina price is expected to remain weak [5][6] 4. Industry News - The Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) proposed to cancel the export tariff on low - grade bauxite, restrict the import of finished aluminum products, and implement preferential railway freight rates. Metro Mining plans to increase the production capacity of its Bauxite Hills bauxite project in Queensland to 6.5 million tons in 2026. The Shanghai Futures Exchange added new alumina delivery warehouses in November [7] 5. Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, spot prices, spot premiums, inter - period spreads, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and exchange inventory [9][12][15][17][19][20]