降息预期改善，锌价横盘震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main futures price of Shanghai zinc fluctuated sideways. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut by the Fed rebounded to over 80%, and the US dollar declined, which was beneficial for the trend of risk assets [3]. - The import of zinc ore remained unprofitable, leading to a decline in processing fees for both domestic and overseas zinc ores. The profit of smelters was further eroded, and the scale of production cuts and suspensions in December expanded. The supply of refined zinc in December decreased by over 20,000 tons month - on - month [3]. - The export window of zinc ingots remained open, alleviating the high - supply pressure in the domestic market. The start - up of primary enterprises maintained off - season characteristics, with a slight fluctuation in the start - up rate [3]. - LME inventory rose above 50,000 tons, and domestic social inventory continued to decline slowly. The overall fundamentals were balanced, with the weakening of consumption and the cooling of the LME squeeze as negative factors, and the decline in processing fees and zinc ingot exports as supporting factors. It was expected that the zinc price would remain in a range - bound pattern in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - The price of SHFE zinc rose from 22,395 yuan/ton on November 21 to 22,425 yuan/ton on November 28, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The price of LME zinc rose from 2992 dollars/ton to 3051 dollars/ton, an increase of 59 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.48 to 7.35 [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly sideways, with obvious support from the 40 - day moving average below, and the weekly increase was 0.16%. LME zinc stabilized and rebounded slightly, with a weekly increase of 1.97% [5]. - In the spot market, affected by smelter maintenance and exports, the supply of goods was limited, and traders maintained a price - holding attitude. However, downstream procurement was cautious, and spot trading was relatively light [5]. - As of November 28, LME zinc inventory increased by 4425 tons to 51,750 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 4431 tons to 95,916 tons. As of November 27, social inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons to 148,100 tons [6]. - In the macro - aspect, US economic data showed mixed performance. The inflation in September rebounded, and the UK's fiscal budget plan involved tax increases. China's manufacturing PMI in November increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% [6][7]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of November 28, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 300 yuan/metal ton to 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 11.8 dollars/dry ton to 61.25 dollars/dry ton [10]. - Kazakhstan's refined zinc output in October was 20,475 tons, a 1.5% increase from September. The output in the first 10 months of this year was 214,334 tons, a 3.7% year - on - year decrease [10]. - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal output in the third quarter of 2025 was 59,800 tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous quarter and a 4.9% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, inventory changes, processing fees of zinc ore, and start - up rates of downstream enterprises, etc., to visually display the market situation of zinc [11][13][17][19][23].