中辉能化观点-20251201
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-12-01 01:52
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously Bearish: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, urea, asphalt, soda ash [1][3][5] - Cautiously Bullish: PX/PTA, methanol, natural gas [3][5] - Bearish Rebound: L, PP, glass [1][5] - Bearish Continuation: Soda ash [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season dominates. Geopolitical tensions ease, and prices are under pressure. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [1][8]. - LPG: Saudi Arabia raises CP contract price, but the market has priced it in. There is short - term correction pressure. Consider buying put options [1]. - L: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - PP: 12 - month CP quote rises, providing cost support. Supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - PVC: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed. Social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support. Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking [1]. - PX/PTA: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. Consider going long on dips [3]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply pressure may ease with future device maintenance, but there is a cumulative inventory expectation in December. Lack of upward drivers, consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - Methanol: Port inventory is decreasing, but supply pressure is still high. Consider going long on 05 contract on dips [3]. - Urea: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. Consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - Natural Gas: Entering the consumption peak season, demand is supported, and prices are likely to rise [5]. - Asphalt: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are under pressure. Continue to hold short positions [5]. - Glass: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans. Short - term may be strong, but long - term is bearish [5]. - Soda Ash: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak. Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Market Review: On November 27, WTI decreased by 0.17%, Brent decreased by 0.78%, and SC increased by 1.30% [7]. - Basic Logic: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season, and geopolitical tensions ease [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply: US oil rig count decreases, and Mexican oil production declines. Demand: OPEC expects global oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. Inventory: US crude and refined product inventories increase [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 460] [10]. 3.2 LPG - Market Review: On November 28, the PG main contract closed at 4361 yuan/ton, up 2.16% [11]. - Basic Logic: Cost is linked to crude oil, downstream demand is resilient, and inventory decreases [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Do not chase the rise, buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4350 - 4450] [13]. 3.3 L - Market Review: L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton [16]. - Basic Logic: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November [18]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [18]. 3.4 PP - Market Review: PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton [21]. - Basic Logic: 12 - month CP quote rises, supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [22]. 3.5 PVC - Market Review: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton [25]. - Basic Logic: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed, social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support [26]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking. Pay attention to the range of V [4500 - 4700] [26]. 3.6 PX/PTA - Market Review: TA05 closed at 4752 yuan/ton [27]. - Basic Logic: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [28]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider going long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4740] [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: Not explicitly mentioned. - Basic Logic: Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol device starts to increase, but future integrated device maintenance will ease supply pressure. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [31]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3850 - 3920] [32]. 3.8 Methanol - Market Review: Not explicitly mentioned. - Basic Logic: Taicang spot strengthens, port inventory decreases, supply pressure is high, and demand improves [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to pay attention to going long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the range of MA [2105 - 2145] [38]. 3.9 Urea - Market Review: URO5 closed at 1743 yuan/ton [39]. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas, and inventory is high [40]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1640 - 1680] [41]. 3.10 Natural Gas - Market Review: On November 27, the NG main contract closed at 4.850 dollars/million British thermal units, up 6.41% [43]. - Basic Logic: EU bans Russian gas imports, entering the consumption peak season, and demand is supported [44]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gas prices are likely to rise. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.680 - 5.000] [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - Market Review: On November 28, the BU main contract closed at 2996 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [48]. - Basic Logic: Cost is linked to crude oil, supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50]. 3.12 Glass - Market Review: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton [53]. - Basic Logic: Multiple production lines plan cold - repair in December, but demand is weak [54]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to cold - repair implementation. Short - term may be strong, long - term is bearish. Pay attention to the range of FG [1020 - 1070] [54]. 3.13 Soda Ash - Market Review: SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton [57]. - Basic Logic: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak [58]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of SA [1140 - 1180] [58].