12月钢价或将震荡企稳

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the rebar 2601 contract rose 0.03%. From January - October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. In November 2025, the steel industry PMI was 48%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points. The industry operation slowed down. The rebar has changed from a situation of strong supply and weak demand to a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have improved. Steel prices may fluctuate and stabilize at the end of the year [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - Futures Price: There is a daily K - line chart of the rebar futures main contract, but no specific data analysis is provided [8][9] - Spot Price: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,260 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] - Basis and Spread: The report mentions rebar basis (active contract), but no detailed data or analysis is provided [16] Important Market Information - In November 2025, the steel industry PMI was 48%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points. The industry's off - season characteristics are gradually emerging. It is expected that in December, steel demand may decline steadily, steel production will moderately contract, raw material prices will fall from high levels, and steel prices will fluctuate and stabilize [18] Supply - side Situation - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 234,680 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 810 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53%. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89% [6][40] Demand - side Situation - As of November 2025, the current value of the construction industry in the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.6, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing managers' index was 47.7, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [29][30] Fundamental Analysis - From January - October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60% and a year - on - year increase of 0.18%. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89%. The average daily hot metal output was 234,680 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 810 tons [38][40] 后市展望 (Future Outlook) - From January - September, the profitability was good. In October, as raw materials continuously squeezed the profit of finished products and steel prices fell, the steel mill profit declined rapidly. At the end of October, the average daily hot metal output fell below 240,000 tons, ending the high - yield situation that lasted for 7 months since March. The rebar has changed from a situation of strong supply and weak demand to a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have improved. Steel prices may fluctuate and stabilize at the end of the year [6][41] Operation Strategy - Single - side: Wait for the stabilization signal to further strengthen and then try to go long with a light position on dips - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Wait and see [7][42]