宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年12月1日）-20251201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The soybean meal market is under pressure from high domestic inventory and weak demand, with limited upside potential, while cost support and concerns about future supply limit the downside, resulting in a continued short - term pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [5]. - The palm oil market is currently dominated by Indonesia's tax game in the short - term, with a "weak reality" and "strong expectation" scenario, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - Core Logic: The domestic spot market has a loose supply - demand situation, with high oil refinery operating rates. Downstream feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing due to breeding losses, and their inventories are sufficient, mainly replenishing on a just - in - time basis. This leads to a negative basis. The high inventory and weak demand in the domestic industry chain limit the rebound space, while cost support and concerns about future supply limit the decline space [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: oscillating strongly; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7]. - Core Logic: The palm oil market is dominated by Indonesia's tax game in the short - term. Delayed shipments have changed inventory and trade flows. The market is looking forward to whether Indonesia will continue to promote or increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio. If the policy is implemented, it will boost Indonesia's industrial consumption of palm oil, reduce export volume, and support prices [7]. Other Relevant Information - For varieties with night trading sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price for calculating the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise between 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise of more than 1% is strong. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [3]. - Short - term refers to within a week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month, based on the previous day's night - session closing price [6].