棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹，豆油：美豆驱动不足，区间震荡为主

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil is experiencing a weakening of high - yield marginal trading and a technical rebound [1]. - Soybean oil lacks a strong driving force from US soybeans and is mainly in a range - bound pattern [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - Palm oil: The day - session closing price was 8,626 yuan/ton with a 1.15% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,646 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase. Trading volume was 410,968 lots with an increase of 27,550 lots, and the open interest was 331,361 lots with a decrease of 33,791 lots [1]. - Soybean oil: The day - session closing price was 8,244 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,280 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase. Trading volume was 172,181 lots with a decrease of 53,408 lots, and the open interest was 347,390 lots with a decrease of 10,124 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The day - session closing price was 9,757 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change, and the night - session closing price was 9,785 yuan/ton with a 0.29% increase. Trading volume was 235,179 lots with a decrease of 5,362 lots, and the open interest was 175,955 lots with a decrease of 5,986 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil (Malaysian ringgit/ton): The closing price was 4,114 with a 0.59% increase [1]. - CBOT soybean oil (US cents/pound): The closing price was 52.08 with a 2.06% increase [1]. - Spot Data: - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The spot price was 8,570 yuan/ton with a 180 - yuan increase [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The spot price was 8,570 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The spot price was 10,280 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract): The price was 1,030 US dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [1]. - Basis Data: - Palm oil (Guangdong): The basis was - 56 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): The basis was 326 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The basis was 523 yuan/ton [1]. - Spread Data: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: 1,131 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: 1,244 yuan/ton) [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: - 382 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: - 304 yuan/ton) [1]. - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: - 52 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: - 62 yuan/ton) [1]. - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: 204 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: 222 yuan/ton) [1]. - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: 256 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: 233 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Palm Oil News: - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were expected to be 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease [2]. - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in December at 926.14 US dollars/ton, lower than 963.75 US dollars/ton in November. The export tariff will drop to 74 US dollars/ton from 124 US dollars/ton in the previous month, and there is an additional 10% export special tax [2][3]. - Indonesian suppliers are expected to postpone the shipment of 310,000 tons of palm oil from November to December due to an expected export tax reduction of over 50 US dollars/ton in December [3]. - Soybean News: - A private US exporter reported the sale of 312,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 delivery [4]. - In September, the US used 1.053 billion pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [4]. - In the 2025/2026 season, the overall growth of Brazil's soybean crops indicates that the yield potential in most areas will be lower than in the 2024/2025 season. The sowing progress is 86.97%, compared with 89.54% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 85.13% [4]. - Agroconsult expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season to reach a record 178.1 million tons [4]. - In the 2025/2026 season, the soybean planting in South Mato Grosso, Brazil, is nearing completion. As of November 21, 95.6% of the expected area (4.583 million hectares) has been sown, with 93.7% of the crops in good condition. The estimated average yield is 52.8 bags per hectare, and the expected total output is 15.1 million tons [5]. - In South Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, the soybean sowing area has reached 60% of the expected area, and the crops are in the germination and vegetative development stages with good emergence [5]. - As of November 27, Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean planting rate was 39% (last week: 25%, last year: 47%) [5]. - As of November 26, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 36% (last week: 24.6%, last year: 45%). The proportion of crops in good condition was 62% (last week: 70%, last year: 21%), and 38% were in normal condition (last week: 30%, last year: 79%) [6]. - Expana estimates that the EU's soybean production in the 2026/2027 season will be 3.2 million tons, up from 3 million tons in the 2025/2026 season [6]. - Due to a significant increase in the planting area, Expana expects the EU's rapeseed production in the 2026/2027 season to be 20.8 million tons, a 1.5% increase from 20.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season [6]. - Expana estimates that the EU's sunflower seed production in the 2026/2027 season will be 9.8 million tons, compared with 8.4 million tons in the 2025/2026 season [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7].