钢材周报：供需驱动不强，期价震荡为主-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The macro data shows that in November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points. The National Development and Reform Commission will promote work to manage price disorderly competition [1]. - The fundamental data indicates that last week, the output of rebar was 2.06 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the apparent demand was 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coil was 3.19 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons. Overall, the industrial data last week was weak, with the output of the five major steel products increasing, the apparent demand remaining weak, and inventory continuing to decline [1]. - Overall, the supply - demand drive is not strong, inventory reduction provides support, but costs are weakening. It is expected that steel prices will mainly fluctuate [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3110 | 21 | 0.68% | 6312460 | 2463988 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3302 | 7 | 0.21% | 1917388 | 876319 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 794.0 | 3.5 | 0.44% | 1179508 | 414346 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1067.0 | - 29.5 | - 2.69% | 5442929 | 862195 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1574.5 | - 58.0 | - 3.55% | 122587 | 48293 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a fluctuating rebound. Steel inventory continued to decline, with both supply and demand decreasing. Supply contracted, leading to a rebound in futures prices, but the terminal market remained weak, with significant upward pressure [4]. - In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2950 (unchanged) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (+30) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270 (+10) Yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The deputy director of the Building Energy Efficiency and Technology Department of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that urban renewal should be given more prominence and the construction of "four good" aspects should be systematically promoted [9]. - In October, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars reached 2.25 million units, with a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month slight increase of 0.3%. Among them, the retail sales of new - energy narrow - sense passenger cars reached 1.288 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.3% [9]. - From November 17th to November 23rd, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.9193 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 36.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.5% [9]. - Six departments issued an implementation plan, aiming to significantly optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, form 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 - billion - level consumption hotspots, and create a number of high - quality consumer goods [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on price disorderly competition cost identification. It will promote work to manage price disorderly competition and maintain a good market price order [9]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [9]. Relevant Charts - The content mainly includes charts related to the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot regional price differences, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [7][10][12]