工业硅周报：传统需求提振，工业硅企稳反弹-20251201

Group 1: Core Views - Last week, industrial silicon prices stabilized and rebounded due to the strong price - supporting intention of polysilicon leading enterprises and the continuous warming of the industrial product market sentiment. The supply side is contracting, with Xinjiang's operating rate at 85%, the operating rate in the southwest dropping to about 30% during the dry season, and the production centers in Inner Mongolia and Gansu shifting down. On the demand side, polysilicon output in November decreased to 110,000 tons, silicon wafers faced overseas order decline, battery cell demand improved slightly, and component end consumption was sluggish with increased inventory [2][6][8]. - Although there is no progress in the new polysilicon platform, the lower - than - expected polysilicon output in November indicates an intention to actively reduce production capacity. Coupled with the improvement in traditional industry consumption, the market has returned to a bullish atmosphere. Technically, the main contract has confirmed support at the 9,000 level, and the industrial silicon futures price is expected to enter a strong - side volatile operation [3][10]. Group 2: Market Data | Contract | December 1st | November 24th | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 9,130.00 | 8,960.00 | 170.00 | 1.90% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - passed 553 spot | 9,550.00 | 9,550.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - passed 553 spot | 9,350.00 | 9,350.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9,800.00 | 9,800.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 10,450.00 | 10,500.00 | - 50.00 | - 0.48% | Yuan/ton | | Organic silicon DMC spot | 13,200.00 | 13,100.00 | 100.00 | 0.76% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 52.00 | 52.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 55 | 54.8 | 0.2 | 0.36% | 10,000 tons | [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook Macro - aspect In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth from January to October was + 1.9%, showing a narrowing trend. The negative growth in October was mainly due to the high base last year and increased enterprise costs. From January to October, the profits of high - tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 8.0% year - on - year, 6.1 percentage points higher than the average level of all industrial enterprises above designated size. Industries such as intelligent electronic manufacturing, semiconductor manufacturing, and precision instrument manufacturing showed good profit growth [7]. Supply - demand aspect As of November 28th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 89,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The number of open furnaces in the three major industrial silicon production areas dropped significantly to 257, and the overall furnace - opening rate rose to 32.3%. The demand side situation is similar to the core view, with polysilicon production reduction, silicon wafer sales pressure, and component end consumption sluggishness. The anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry is strengthening, and the production of the mid - downstream market is in a contraction cycle, promoting the improvement of the supply - demand balance of upstream silicon materials [7][8]. Inventory aspect As of November 28th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 550,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons. The terminal consumption has slowed down. As of November 21st, the registered warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased to 39,555 lots, equivalent to 198,000 tons. After the exchange issued new regulations on delivery standards, most of the 4 - series brand warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5 - series warehouse receipts meeting the new standards are actively being registered, and the current warehouse receipt inventory is maintained at around 50,000 tons [9]. Group 4: Industry News - On November 24th, Huadian Gansu Energy Co., Ltd. issued a tender announcement for the procurement of 800 MW high - efficiency photovoltaic modules for the Hexi New Energy Base in the Tengger Desert, Gansu. The project is located in the Jiuduntan Photovoltaic Desert Control Demonstration Park in Liangzhou District, Wuwei City, and the Hongshagang area in Minqin County, Gansu. The project is divided into one bid section, and the delivery is required to be completed before June 2026 [11]. - On November 22nd, the list of winning candidates for the 2025 centralized procurement project of photovoltaic modules by China Energy Engineering Group was announced. A total of 23 enterprises were short - listed, including well - known photovoltaic enterprises such as Hefei JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd. and JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. [12] Group 5: Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including those on industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, weekly production in main production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various industrial silicon brands [14][19][21]