格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Core View - The steel market shows a situation of both supply and demand being weak. The market should focus on the time node of the shift in trading logic from industry to macro - expectations. For the rebar main contract, there is caution in chasing long positions as the change in trading logic has not been confirmed [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review - Rebar and hot - rolled coils closed higher on Friday and also rose in night trading [1] 2. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that intelligent connected vehicles will form a trillion - yuan consumption field [1] - The China Iron and Steel Association reported that in November 2025, the floating value of the coking coal long - term agreement in the coal - steel linkage was 78 yuan higher than that in October [1] - Chongqing supports using special bonds to repurchase eligible idle land [1] - Gong Sheng, the president of the All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce Metallurgical Chamber of Commerce, emphasized that private steel enterprises should increase R & D investment, promote intelligent transformation, and deepen green development [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [1] - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points month - on - month; the profitability rate of steel mills was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points month - on - month; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month [1] 3. Market Logic - Rebar and hot - rolled coils rose on Friday, continued to climb in night trading and sharply pulled up near the close. It is necessary to observe whether the market is trading the macro - expectation logic in advance. Last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand of all steel products changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to decline, but the de - stocking speed slowed down [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Focus on the time node of the shift in market trading logic from industry to macro - expectations. The first resistance level of the rebar main contract is 3150, and the second is 3202. The 3000 level is still a strong support. Due to the unconfirmed change in trading logic, be cautious about chasing long positions [1]