宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年12月1日）-20251201

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that on one hand, the marginal weakening of macro data in October indicates that the future monetary policy environment is expected to be loose, providing strong support for bond futures. On the other hand, the difficulty of achieving the annual growth target is low, so there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for bond futures. Overall, bond futures will mainly show volatile consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, the intraday is weak, with a view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, TS is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The driving factors include the weakening of October macro data and the low difficulty of achieving the annual growth target [5].