商品期货早班车-20251201

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures including precious metals, base metals, black industry, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also mentions potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Performance: On Friday, gold and silver prices rose significantly. London gold reached $4250 per ounce, up 1.73%, and London silver closed at $56.71 per ounce, up 6.12% [1]. - Fundamentals: Putin agreed to use the US list on Ukraine issue for future negotiations; the speech of the Bank of Japan governor on Monday will determine the policy direction; French President Macron will visit China in early December. There were changes in inventories of gold and silver in different locations, and the holdings of some ETFs remained stable or increased [1]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest to buy gold at the lower support level. For silver, due to the reappearance of overseas market tensions, short - term long positions can be taken [1]. Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices strengthened significantly on Friday [1]. - Fundamentals: The expectation of a December interest rate cut exceeded 80%. The cesco meeting signaled a clear seller's market for copper concentrate and refined copper. There were spot premiums for copper in East and South China, and the London structure was in a back situation. Global visible inventory decreased weekly, and COMEX had locked and immovable inventory [1]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest to buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - Market Performance: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.51% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 21,610 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 135 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2865 per ton [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [1]. - Trading Strategy: With the increase in the aluminum product operating rate, the decline in aluminum ingot inventory, and the favorable macro - environment at home and abroad, the fundamentals are improving marginally. The aluminum price shows a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the future [1]. Alumina - Market Performance: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.62% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2707 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 13 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, some alumina plants resumed production after previous overhauls, and the operating capacity increased again. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [1]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the loose supply, continuous inventory accumulation, and weak cost support, although the decline in the spot price has narrowed, the short - dominated pattern remains unchanged. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Black Industry Steel - Market Performance: The main contract of rebar 2601 closed at 3124 yuan per ton, up 39 yuan per ton from the previous night - session closing price [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of steel is weak, and the structural differentiation is significant. The demand for building materials has slightly improved marginally but remains weak year - on - year, and the supply has also decreased significantly year - on - year with limited contradictions. The demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high, but due to high production, inventory reduction is difficult. Rebar futures have a large discount and low valuation; hot - rolled coil futures' discount is basically the same as the previous period, with a high valuation. Steel mills are continuously losing money, and production may continue to decline marginally [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the steel mill's profit. The reference range for RB01 is 3080 - 3130 [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main contract of iron ore 2601 closed at 796.5 yuan per ton, up 4 yuan per ton from the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of iron ore is weak. The weekly iron - making water production decreased by 16,000 tons, up 0.3% year - on - year. The fourth round of coke price increase failed, and the first round of price cut was proposed. Steel mills' profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease steadily. The supply is in line with seasonal rules and slightly increased year - on - year. The supply - demand of iron ore is weakening marginally. The iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, with a moderately high valuation [4]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the steel mill's profit. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main contract of coking coal 2601 closed at 1068.5 yuan per ton, down 0.5 yuan per ton from the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The iron - making water production decreased by 16,000 tons to 2363,000 tons, up 0.3% year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are deteriorating, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease steadily. The third round of price increase was implemented, but the fourth round failed and the first round of price cut was proposed. The inventory of each link on the supply side is differentiated. The inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at a neutral level in the same period of history, and the pit - mouth inventory is low, with a neutral overall inventory level. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the forward premium structure remains, with a high futures valuation [4]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the steel mill's profit. The reference range for JM01 is 1050 - 1100 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday [5]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply decreased, but it was still a quantitative change; the long - term supply in South America is expected to be large in a normal year, and it is currently in the sowing and growing stage. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports are still in a game, depending on the future non - commercial procurement volume from China. In general, the global supply - demand situation is improving marginally but still loose [5]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are in a moderately strong oscillation, with valuation repair; the domestic market also follows the cost side in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the progress of tariff policies and the output in the production area [5]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices were strong, while spot prices fell in North China and rose in Northeast China [5]. - Fundamentals: Weather factors postponed the supply. Currently, the national corn channel inventory is at a low level, and there is a need to build inventory. The deep - processing profit is good, the demand is strong, and the acquisition intention is high. The short - term supply - demand tightness led to a spot price rebound. However, the arrival of new corn in Northeast China is approaching, the new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost of corn has decreased significantly, suppressing the long - term price expectation. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - Trading Strategy: The spot price has loosened, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and consolidate [5]. Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose last Friday, trading on the concern of floods in the production area [5]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the production in the production area is high, and the MPOA estimated that the production from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.2% month - on - month, but there were flood disturbances in the Indonesian production area. On the demand side, the ITS estimated that the Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 decreased by 19% month - on - month. Overall, the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in the near - term and is expected to have a seasonal production decline in the long - term [6]. - Trading Strategy: P is strong, trading on the flood disturbances in the production area and variety differentiation. Attention should be paid to future production and biodiesel policies [6]. Sugar - Market Performance: The ICE raw sugar 03 contract closed at 15.21 cents per pound, with a weekly increase of 2.98%. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5400 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 0.88%. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 215 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar with duty - paid after quota was 581 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the international sugar price rebounded slightly this week. Part of the negative impact of the northern hemisphere's production increase has been realized. The future export situation of India will affect the international trend. The raw sugar will oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and the global production increase trend will continue in the long - term, with the 26/27 sugar season continuing to find the bottom through oscillation. Domestically, the sugar price rebounded under the influence of raw sugar, but the increase was smaller than that of raw sugar. In the future, new sugar will be gradually launched, the production increase expectation in Guangxi has been significantly raised, and the import pressure in October is prominent. The domestic market will be under the dual pressure of production increase and import in the fourth quarter and is expected to continue to oscillate and decline [6]. - Trading Strategy: Short in the futures market; sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market Performance: The US cotton futures price continued to rebound, and the international crude oil price stopped falling [6]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, as of the week ending October 16, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 175,700 bales, an increase of 11% compared to the previous week and 17% compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The Indian Ministry of Agriculture began to lower the new - year cotton production forecast. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upwards, and the Xinjiang basis decreased month - on - month. Currently, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the overall production and sales of textile enterprises are normal [6]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips, with a strategy mainly in the range of 13,600 - 13,900 yuan per ton [6]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices continued to rebound, and egg spot prices rose slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of laying hens in production decreased, and the number of culled hens was at a high level, reducing the supply pressure. After the egg price rebounded, the market sales were average, and traders purchased as needed and the wait - and - see sentiment gradually increased. The increase in vegetable prices boosted the egg price. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the egg price is expected to oscillate [6]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [6]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices were weak, while most pig spot prices rebounded [6]. - Fundamentals: The pig supply is still abundant, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The supply - demand pressure has eased compared to the previous period. However, approaching the Winter Solstice, there may be a wave of concentrated slaughter by farmers, and the reduction in supply at the end of the month has limited support. The pig price is expected to weaken seasonally, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - Trading Strategy: The supply is abundant, the expectation is pessimistic, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Apples - Market Performance: The main contract closed at 9450 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 0.11%. The apple prices in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong were stable, with different price ranges for different grades and types of apples [6]. - Fundamentals: This year, the total apple production is low, the inventory is low, and the quality is poor. The national total production decreased by 8% - 15% year - on - year, and the high - quality fruit rate is less than 20%, lower than the previous level of over 30%. Farmers and merchants are pessimistic about the cold - storage market but optimistic about the spot market. The spot acquisition price has increased significantly, and the acquisition price of high - quality apples in the Northwest region has reached over 5 yuan per catty. However, the large - scale listing of winter seasonal fruits will put seasonal pressure on the apple price [6]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract rebounded slightly on Friday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6730 yuan per ton, the basis of the 01 contract was the futures price minus 60, the basis weakened, and the market trading performance was acceptable. Overseas, the US dollar price decreased slightly, and the current import window was closed [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new plants were put into operation, some plants reduced production or stopped, and the domestic supply pressure eased. The import window remained closed, and the future import volume was expected to decrease slightly. Overall, the domestic supply pressure increased but at a slower pace. On the demand side, the current downstream agricultural film season is off - peak, the demand decreased month - on - month, and the demand in other fields remained stable [8]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply - demand was weak. As it enters the delivery month, it will mainly oscillate weakly, and the upside space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [8]. PVC - Market Performance: V01 closed at 4580, up 0.7% [8]. - Fundamentals: PVC prices increased slightly driven by the macro - environment. The supply increased, with new plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua put into operation, and the supply increased by 1% month - on - month. The production in October was 2.12 million tons, up 5.6% year - on - year, and the expected operating rate in the fourth quarter is 78% - 80%. The operating rate of downstream factories began to decline, around 38%. The real estate market weakened in October, with new construction and completion decreasing by 17% year - on - year. The social inventory was at a high level, and the PVC social inventory on November 28 was 1.0428 million tons, up 0.99% month - on - month and 23.44% year - on - year [8]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short [8]. Rubber - Market Performance: On Friday, RU2601 was strong, closing at 15,410 yuan per ton, up 1.22% [8]. - Fundamentals: On November 28, the price of Thai He'ai glue was 57 Thai baht per kilogram (unchanged), and the price of cup rubber decreased slightly by 0.2 - 0.4 Thai baht per kilogram. The spot market price center increased, and downstream enterprises made rigid purchases. The price of Thai mixed rubber was 14,680 yuan per ton (up 80), and the price of whole - milk rubber was 14,950 yuan per ton (up 100). Last week, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises had overhauls, and the capacity utilization rate was 66% (down 3.36%); the full - steel tire enterprises that had overhauls resumed production, and the capacity utilization rate was 62.75% (up 0.71%) [8]. - Trading Strategy: There is still an expectation of seasonal output increase, inventory accumulation, and downstream demand pressure. The rubber price lacks more positive support for an upward trend. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to close long positions. In the medium - term, the rubber price will still oscillate widely, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [8]. Glass - Market Performance: FG01 closed at 1040, down 1.2% [8]. - Fundamentals: The glass price rebounded recently, mainly due to more cold - repairs and cost support. Hubei Yijun is expected to shut down 2 production lines, and Sanxia New Material will shut down 1 production line, with the expected daily melting volume to decrease by 4000 tons. The inventory is at a high level, and the upstream inventory on November 27 was 62.362 million heavy boxes, down 1.49% month -