甲醇：上方空间收窄

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, methanol rebounded from a low level due to the gradual maintenance of Iranian facilities and significant destocking at ports, which led to the concentrated exit of short - sellers and a resonance - style rise in futures and spot prices. In the medium - term, the high domestic supply pressure of the 01 - contract methanol remains the main contradiction, and the high daily output and high import volume may limit the upside price space of the 01 - contract in December. In 2026, the overall fundamental pattern of methanol may improve in the first quarter. The current fundamental pressure level for methanol is 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton, and if methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan, which is around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,135 yuan/ton, up from 2,114 yuan/ton; the settlement price was 2,126 yuan/ton, up from 2,117 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 943,772 lots, down from 1,682,067 lots; the open interest of the 01 - contract was 1,048,788 lots, down 55,870 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,800 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 2,006,620 ten - thousand yuan, down 1,554,224 ten - thousand yuan; the basis was - 25, down from - 9; the monthly spread (MA01 - MA05) was - 84, up from - 94 [1]. - Spot Market: The price in Inner Mongolia was 1,965 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,960 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2. Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2060.77, up 2.24. Among them, the Taicang spot price was 2110, up 5, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1992.5, up 2.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 10 cities saw varying degrees of price increases, with increases ranging from 1 to 25 yuan/ton. The methanol futures fluctuated at a high level. The spot market was for rigid - demand negotiations, with far - month futures - spot trading as the main activity. The basis remained stable and weak. The inland methanol market atmosphere was still active, the auction transactions were optimistic, and the freight prices increased in some areas. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand on Friday, and the traders reported quantities actively, with the transaction prices rising slightly within the week [3]. 3.3. Inventory Situation - As of November 26, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 136.35 million tons, a decrease of 11.58 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.83%. The overall unloading of foreign vessels at ports was lower than expected, and only 15.20 million tons of visible unloading was recorded during the period. Supported by reverse flow, the提货 at the riverside warehouses in Jiangsu was good, and the load of some major downstream enterprises increased slightly; the rigid demand in Zhejiang was stable. The inventory at South China ports continued to be destocked. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic trade vessels arrived at ports during the week, and the提货 at the mainstream storage areas was stable, resulting in continuous destocking. In Fujian, there were no vessels arriving at ports, and the inventory decreased under stable consumption by downstream enterprises [3].