尿素：价格中枢上移，日内跟随现货情绪

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The fundamental drivers of urea are currently neutral, with the subsequent upward movement of the drivers depending on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment. The continuous reduction of visible inventory supports the price [2][3] - The short - term valuation range of urea has shifted upward. The static valuation pressure above the futures is around 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, and the support below the 01 contract is expected to be at 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of urea was 1,677 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,678 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract was 173,436 lots, an increase of 14,693 lots, and the open interest was 223,887 lots, a decrease of 7,026 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,587 tons, an increase of 406 tons, and the trading volume was 581,995 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 53,412 ten - thousand yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 7, up 11; the spread between UR01 and UR05 was - 66, down 7 [1] - Spot Market: The factory prices of some urea manufacturers remained stable, while the prices of Shanxi Fengxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi increased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side operating rate was 84.10%, up 0.99 percentage points, and the daily output was 203,380 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons [1] Industry News - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.10%. The inventory of enterprises in some regions decreased, while that in some regions increased [2] - The demand side, with the superposition of reserves and exports, has led to a phased improvement in the urea fundamentals, and the driver has changed from downward to neutral [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]