首席点评：黄金原油双反弹

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | | Bearish | Bullish | | --- | --- | --- | | (IH) Stock Index | | √ | | Stock Index (IF) | | √ | | Stock Index (IC) | | √ | | Stock Index (IM) | | √ | | Treasury Bonds (TL) | | √ | | Treasury Bonds (T) | | √ | | Crude Oil | √ | | | Methanol | √ | | | Rubber | | √ | | Rebar | | √ | | Hot Rolled Coil | | √ | | Iron Ore | | √ | | Coking Coal | √ | | | Coke | √ | | | Manganese Silicon | √ | | | Ferrosilicon | √ | | | Copper | | √ | | Aluminum | | √ | | Lithium Carbonate | | √ | | Apple | √ | | | Corn | | √ | | Soda Ash | √ | | | Glass | √ | | | Container Shipping to Europe | √ | | [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic sentiment is generally stable in November 2025, and the economy is expected to face new opportunities in 2026. The report suggests setting cross - cycle interval combination targets for 2026 [1]. - For the stock index, in the context of economic pressure, relevant incremental policies are expected to be introduced, and a long - term and slow - growing bull market may continue. The market style may tend to be balanced later [2][10]. - Copper prices are supported in the long - run due to the shift of global copper supply and demand to a deficit caused by mine supply disruptions [2][17]. - The downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse despite short - term price increases [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News Concerns - International News: The US - Ukraine talks are considered "fruitful", and the US will strengthen diplomatic efforts. The US Middle East envoy may go to Moscow for further talks, and the US has maintained contact with Russia [6]. - Domestic News: The National Development and Reform Commission encourages private enterprises to seize investment opportunities and promotes the high - quality development of private investment [6]. - Industry News: In October 2025, the private equity fund scale reached 22.05 trillion yuan, a record high. The private securities investment fund scale exceeded 7 trillion yuan for the first time, and all types of funds grew synchronously [7]. 3.2. Outer - market Daily Earnings - On November 28, 2025, most outer - market varieties showed price fluctuations. For example, the S&P 500 rose 0.54%, the European STOXX50 rose 0.32%, London Gold rose 1.48%, etc. [9] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - Financial: - Stock Index: The US three major indexes rose. The stock index mainly rose in the previous trading day. The science and technology sector is expected to be the long - term direction. The market style may tend to be balanced later, and a long - term bull market may continue [2][10]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond prices are mixed. The market funds are stable, but due to factors such as economic data, real - estate market conditions, and policy expectations, the Treasury bond futures prices turn weak [11]. - Energy and Chemical: - Crude Oil: The SC crude oil rose 1.11% at night. The market is skeptical about the restart of the Ukraine peace process. The overall downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse [3][12]. - Methanol: Methanol fell 0.28% at night. The domestic methanol and CTO/MTO device operating rates decreased. The coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a high level. Methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13]. - Rubber: Overseas rubber supply increases, while domestic supply is about to enter the off - season. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely with a slowly rising center [14]. - Polyolefin: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by crude oil and the overall weakness of commodities. The future trend depends on consumption, supply, and production scheduling [15]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The glass futures are in consolidation, and the soda ash futures continue to be weak. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the market is still cautious [16]. - Metal: - Copper: Copper prices rose 1.5% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The copper supply - demand deficit supports copper prices in the long - run [2][17]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rose at night. The zinc concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow. The zinc supply - demand difference is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range [18]. - Agricultural Products: - Protein Meal: Bean meal rose and rapeseed meal fell slightly at night. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress has accelerated. The US soybean export is slow, and market concerns drive the bean meal to fluctuate strongly [19]. - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats were strong at night. The palm oil production increase is lower than expected, and the Brazilian soybean transportation problem boosts the price. Oils and fats are expected to be strong in the short - term [20]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar fluctuates within a range. Internationally, the raw sugar rebounds due to factors such as Brazil's early harvest and India's situation. Domestically, the sugar supply increases seasonally, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [21]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton is strong in the short - term. The domestic supply is sufficient, the downstream demand is acceptable, and the external orders support the price. However, the upward space is limited [22][23]. - Shipping Index: - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC rebounded on Friday. The SCFI European line price rose slightly. As the end - of - year peak season approaches, the market focus will shift to the downward space of freight rates in the first quarter of next year. The ability of shipping companies to support prices in late December and January is questionable [24].