PP：短期反弹，中期趋势仍有压力

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The PP market shows a short - term rebound, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend. The high supply on the supply side still exerts significant pressure on the market. Although the recent transaction has improved slightly, it is mainly due to the low - price factor for short - term restocking. The peak demand period in the year has passed, and the key to the future market lies in future demand factors. In the long - term, cost pressure, high supply, and weak downstream demand with low profits will be the dominant factors in the first half of 2026. However, the low profit of PP also limits the market's future downward space [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 6409, with a daily increase of 1.91%. The trading volume was 424,635, and the open interest decreased by 50595. The 01 - contract basis was - 159, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 81 [1] - Spot Price: The spot prices in North China were in the range of 6130 - 6300 yuan/ton, in East China 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, and in South China 6300 - 6470 yuan/ton [1] 2. Spot News - The domestic PP market showed a volatile trend in the morning and a slight increase in the afternoon. The rise of PP futures during the day boosted the spot market. At the end of the month, most traders had completed their monthly sales plans, with relatively mild inventory pressure. They tentatively raised prices slightly. Downstream factories were mostly on the sidelines in the morning, but as the futures continued to rise in the afternoon, the market's purchasing sentiment improved, and the overall trading atmosphere improved significantly [2] 3. Market Condition Analysis - The high supply on the supply side still suppresses the market. The recent improvement in trading is mainly due to short - term restocking at low prices. The peak demand period in the year has passed, and the key to the future market is future demand. In the long - term, cost pressure, high supply, and weak downstream demand with low profits will be the dominant factors in the first half of 2026 [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]