宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年12月1日）-20251201

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View - Gold is recommended to be on the sidelines, with short - term strength, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation with a bias towards strength. The core logic is the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation. The rising price is mainly driven by the continuous heating up of Fed rate cut expectations and the decline of the US dollar index [1][3]. - Copper is recommended to be long - term bullish, with short - term oscillation, medium - term strength, and intraday strength. The rising price benefits from the Fed rate cut expectation and the weakening of the US dollar index, along with the differentiation of electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad [1][4]. 3) Summary by Variety Gold - Price Situation: Last week, the gold price went up, approaching the high in early November. New York gold reached above $4200, and Shanghai gold exceeded the 950 - yuan mark [3]. - Driving Factors: The continuous heating up of the Fed rate cut expectation led to the weakening of the US dollar index. As of November 30, the market expected the probability of a Fed rate cut in December to be close to 90%, and the US dollar index weakened from the 100 - mark last week [3]. - Market Performance: In the short term, the gold price is expected to be strong, but it is weaker than silver, possibly due to the switching of market risk preferences [3]. Copper - Price Situation: Last week, Shanghai copper increased in position and went up significantly. On Friday night, the copper price continued to rise. LME copper broke through the $11,000 mark and the previous high, and Shanghai copper approached the 89,000 - yuan mark [4]. - Driving Factors: It benefited from the Fed rate cut expectation and the weakening of the US dollar index. In the industry, the electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad were differentiated, with marginal inventory accumulation overseas and marginal inventory reduction in China, and the spot premium of Shanghai copper strengthened slightly [4]. - Technical Analysis: Shanghai copper increased in position and went up, with strong short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the high point at the end of October [4].