期货技术分析周报：2025年第49周-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints The overall market presents structural opportunities. It is recommended to combine technical signals with position management to seize the operation opportunities when each variety corrects or breaks through. Different sectors and varieties show different trends, including bullish, bearish, and sideways signals [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector is mainly in a sideways trend, with no obvious price signals. In the non-ferrous sector, copper, aluminum alloy, aluminum, zinc, industrial silicon, and polysilicon show bullish signals, while alumina shows a bearish signal, and the rest of the varieties are mainly in a sideways trend [9]. - For Shanghai copper CU2601, the price has been rising this week. On the weekly level, it is above the key support range after breaking through the triangular consolidation, with a bullish moving average arrangement, but it faces strong resistance in the 89,000 - 90,500 yuan/ton range. On the daily level, the MACD shows a "golden cross" signal, and there is still room for an upward trend before a clear top signal appears [11]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - According to the technical indicator ratings, rebar shows a bullish signal, while coke and manganese silicon show bearish signals. European Line Container Shipping shows no signal and is mainly in a sideways trend, and the rest of the black series varieties are mainly in a sideways trend [19]. - For rebar RB2601, the price has risen significantly this week. The weekly line shows no long - term upward signal, but it is gradually stabilizing. The daily line shows that the price has the possibility of breaking through the original downward channel. If the price rises with the expansion of the Bollinger Bandwidth, there is still some upward space, and the upper resistance range is around 3,200 - 3,250 yuan/ton [24]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, LPG shows a bullish signal in technical indicators, and the rest of the varieties are mainly in a sideways trend. In the chemical sector, PTA, p - xylene, propylene, etc. show bullish signals, while caustic soda shows a bearish signal, and the rest of the varieties are mainly in a sideways trend [29]. - For methanol 2601, the price has been rising this week, but the Bollinger Bandwidth is narrowing, and the MACD signal is weakening. The price may face a callback risk after rising, and long - position investors need to pay attention to position management [33]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - According to the technical indicator signals, soybeans, rapeseeds, and peanuts in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals, while soybean oil, apples, rapeseed meal, etc. show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly in a sideways trend [39]. - For sugar SR601, the price has been rising this week, but the price center has decreased compared with last week. The weekly line shows a new low, and the OBV shows high - level sideways movement. The daily line shows that the rebound strength is insufficient. It is recommended to pay attention to subsequent price fluctuations and consider a long - position strategy at low prices when the moving average system shows more bullish arrangements and the MACD forms a golden cross [44]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - According to the technical indicator signals, the four major indexes all show sideways signals, with no obvious signal guidance [50]. - For the IC CSI 500 futures, the weekly line shows a slight rebound, but the rebound space next week may be limited. The daily line shows that the price is below the MA60 moving average, with weak upward momentum, and short - term price fluctuations are under pressure. Attention should be paid to position management [54]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - According to the technical indicator signals, the 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures are mainly in a sideways trend, while the 2 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds show bearish signals [56]. - For the T 10 - year treasury bond futures, the price has fallen significantly this week. The weekly line shows a long - negative line breaking through the MA60 moving average, and there may be new short - position pressure. The daily line shows obvious short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the linkage between the price and the Bollinger Band, and position management should be carried out [60].