中辉有色观点-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Cautious long [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautious long [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautious long [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and Silver: Short - term silver has a large - scale market affecting gold; geopolitical uncertainties and central bank gold - buying support long - term gold investment; silver has long - term supply - demand gaps and short - term price increases, but caution is needed [1][2] - Copper: Global copper supply is tight, prices hit new highs; avoid blind chasing, long - term bullish outlook [1][5][6] - Zinc: Short - term wide - range fluctuations, long - term supply increase and demand decrease, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][8][9] - Aluminum: Short - term price rebound, pay attention to inventory changes [1][10][13] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, pay attention to downstream stainless - steel inventory [1][14][17] - Lithium carbonate: Total inventory decreases for 15 consecutive weeks, wait for long - entry opportunities after high - level consolidation [1][18][20] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Silver experiences a short - term delivery squeeze, gold has long - term support [2] - Basic Logic: Powell's resignation rumor, geopolitical variables, long - term bullish for gold due to global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring; silver has long - term supply - demand gaps [2] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term pay attention to support levels, long - term value - based holdings, short - term caution [2] Copper - Market Review: LME copper hits a new high, SHFE copper follows [4][5] - Industry Logic: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, production declines, inventory changes, and high premiums [5] - Strategy Recommendation: Avoid blind chasing, set trailing stops for long positions, long - term bullish, pay attention to price ranges [6] Zinc - Market Review: SHFE zinc fluctuates in a range [8] - Industry Logic: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decline, production and inventory changes, soft squeeze risk eases [8] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for more macro guidance, long - term short on rebounds, pay attention to price ranges [9] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum price rebounds slightly, alumina is weak [10][11] - Industry Logic: Electrolytic aluminum supply is tight, demand improves; alumina is in excess, pay attention to bauxite supply [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term take profit and wait, pay attention to inventory changes, pay attention to price ranges [13] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel price rebounds under pressure, stainless steel falls [14][15] - Industry Logic: Indonesia may cut nickel production, inventory changes, stainless - steel demand enters the off - season [16] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on dips and wait, pay attention to stainless - steel inventory, pay attention to price ranges [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2605 opens low and goes high, slightly falls at the end [18][19] - Industry Logic: Total inventory decreases for 15 consecutive weeks, production and demand conditions, wait for long - entry opportunities [20] - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on dips, pay attention to price ranges [21]