尿素早评20251201：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of oversupply in supply and demand. However, from a driving perspective, urea prices are supported at low levels. Strategically, investors should focus on opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium to long term [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong increased by 9 yuan/ton (0.54%), in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton (1.21%); UR05 increased by 16 yuan/ton (0.93%); UR09 increased by 21 yuan/ton (1.21%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - granular): In Jiangsu, it increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.22%), while in other regions such as Henan, Hebei, and Northeast, there was no change [1] - Basis and spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 4 yuan/ton; the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton [1] - Upstream costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu dropped to 0, with a decrease of 100% [1] 3.2 Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1679 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1687 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1677 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1678 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Multi - Empty Logic - The bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. In terms of valuation, the rebound from the bottom is not significant, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In terms of driving factors, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Focus on opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium to long term [1]