甲醇周报：基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇反弹空间或许有限-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and the rebound space of methanol futures may be limited. It is recommended to consider reducing positions to take profits or temporarily leaving the market for methanol long positions [1][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol port inventory decreased significantly, and the methanol futures and spot prices strengthened simultaneously. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price reached 2,163 yuan/ton, a 6.24% increase from the previous week. The port methanol market price stopped falling and trended stronger, and the inland methanol price also increased [6][14] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Production - Last week (20251121 - 1127), China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, an increase of 7,530 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.09%, a 0.37% increase from the previous week [15] 3.2.2 Downstream Demand - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products were as follows: the weekly average start - up of the olefin industry increased slightly; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate increased by 38.49% from the previous week; the load of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the methane chloride capacity utilization rate increased; and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate increased [19][20] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 26, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 373,700 tons, a 4.19% increase from the previous period, and the order backlog was 230,700 tons, a 6.34% decrease from the previous period. The methanol port sample inventory was 1,363,500 tons, a 7.83% decrease from the previous period [21][26] 3.2.4 Profit - Last week (20251121 - 1127), the theoretical profit of domestic methanol sample enterprises was still weak overall. The profits from coal - based and natural - gas - based production were still weak, while that from coke - oven - gas - based production improved slightly [29] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook 3.3.1 Supply - This week, the number of restarted domestic methanol devices may exceed that of the overhauled ones. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0728 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 91.27%, an increase from last week [34] 3.3.2 Downstream Demand - The weekly average start - up of olefins is expected to continue to increase; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to remain flat; the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to decline; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase slightly; and the methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise [37][38] 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to reach 374,900 tons, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend. The port inventory is expected to increase, but the specific inventory trend still depends on the unloading and picking - up speeds [38] - Overall, the methanol supply and demand remain loose, and there is no substantial positive driving force in the fundamentals. The subsequent rebound space of methanol may be limited [38]