宏观和大类资产配置周报：本周沪深300指数上涨1.64%-20251201

Macro Economy - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.64% this week, with the asset allocation order being stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [1][2][4]. Asset Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.64%, while the Shanghai Composite Index futures rose by 1.49%. In contrast, coking coal futures fell by 4.40%, and iron ore main contracts increased by 0.64%. The annualized yield of Yu'ebao decreased by 2 basis points to 1.00%, and the ten-year government bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.84% [2][12][37]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report highlights that raw material prices continue to be a significant drag on the profitability of industrial enterprises. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for production materials showed a notable year-on-year decline from January to October. The report suggests that policies may be implemented to address the issue of "price weakness" from both supply and demand sides, with expectations for incremental policies by the end of this year and early next year [3][5][21]. Key Economic Data - From January to October, China's total foreign direct investment reached USD 144.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The new contract amount for foreign engineering contracting business was USD 210.7 billion, up 18.6% year-on-year [6][21]. Industry Insights - The report notes that the real estate investment continues to drag down fixed asset investment performance, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 14.7% from January to October, impacting the current fixed asset investment growth rate by 3.0 percentage points [3][21]. Commodity Market Overview - The commodity futures index rose by 5.25% this week, with significant increases in non-metallic building materials (4.64%) and precious metals (3.80%). However, some commodities like coking coal saw a decline of 2.52% [49][51]. Stock Market Performance - The A-share market saw a general increase, with the ChiNext Index leading at a rise of 4.54%. The telecommunications and electronic components sectors performed well, while the oil and coal sectors experienced declines [37][38]. Bond Market Insights - The ten-year government bond yield rose to 1.84%, with a slight increase of 2 basis points. The report indicates that the "stock-bond seesaw" effect may impact the bond market in the short term [42][44]. Consumer Market Trends - The report highlights that the automobile consumption data shows a mixed performance, with wholesale and retail sales growth rates of 2% and -7% respectively. The report anticipates that automobile consumption will remain a key focus for future consumption promotion efforts [34][37].