美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价：沪铜日评20251201-20251201

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The weak employment performance in the US has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 87,430 yuan, up 440 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 94,508 lots, down 810 lots; open interest was 218,257 lots, up 7,573 lots; inventory was 35,244 tons, down 629 tons [3]. - London Copper: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was $11,175.5, up $245.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was $44.69, up $28.13; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was $195, up $28.75 [3]. - COMEX Copper: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was $5.278, up $0.17 from the previous day; total inventory was 418,727 tons, up 2,847 tons [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, resulting in a continuous negative China copper concentrate import index, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased month - on - month [3]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod decreased, and that of recycled copper rod remained flat. Higher copper prices have curbed downstream purchasing意愿 [3]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to last week, while LME electrolytic copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory increased [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 yuan and the resistance levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 yuan for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 for London copper and 12,300 - 13,500; and the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].