Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is currently dragged down by the "weak volume and price" situation, with significant marginal decline. In the short - term, it will face pressure and maintain a weak oscillation. In the long - term, it is expected to enter a repair channel in 2025 [2]. - The upward space of the US dollar index is limited, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term. The release of November non - farm payroll data and the determination of the Fed chair candidate will test its resilience [2]. - The RMB exchange rate will likely show a complex pattern of depreciation trend (appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar) and volatility risks coexisting within the year. In the short - term, it will be robust and strong, but the appreciation speed may slow down, and the two - way fluctuation will be more obvious [4][5]. - The stock index trading atmosphere is sluggish and is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - The mid - term outlook for treasury bonds is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [8]. - The container shipping European line futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. - Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals. Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23][25]. - Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. - Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: China's November official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2, and the high - tech manufacturing PMI remained above 50 for 10 consecutive months. The US "Black Friday" sales increased by 4.1% year - on - year, and the AI traffic soared by 600%. The US - Ukraine negotiation was considered "productive" [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0794 on the previous trading day, up 12 points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was 7.0789, down 10 points. The RMB exchange rate is expected to show a complex pattern of appreciation and volatility risks [3][4]. - Stock Index: The trading atmosphere is sluggish, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - Treasury Bonds: The mid - term outlook is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [7][8]. - Container Shipping European Line: The futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - Copper: Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - Nickel, Stainless Steel: Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals [23][24]. - Tin: Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - Carbonate Lithium: Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - Lead: Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - Coking Coal & Coke: Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - LPG: LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - PTA - PX: PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - Urea: Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - PP: PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - PE: PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - Asphalt: Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - Rubber & 20 - number Rubber: Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73].
金融期货早评-20251201
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-01 02:49