20251201申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20251201

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. On the spot side, linear LL prices from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable, while some拉丝 PP prices from PetroChina were lowered by 50. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level. Future focus should be on marginal consumption, as well as supply and production scheduling levels [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6789, 6857, and 6882 respectively, with increases of 90, 94, and 78, and涨幅 of 1.34%, 1.39%, and 1.15% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6409, 6490, and 6504 respectively, with increases of 114, 97, and 69, and涨幅 of 1.81%, 1.52%, and 1.07% respectively [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes for LL in January, May, and September contracts were 330099, 121195, and 1335 respectively, and the open interests were 457393, 242365, and 4066 respectively, with open interest changes of -38333, 9803, and -168 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 424635, 142549, and 5677 respectively, and the open interests were 506658, 269109, and 15202 respectively, with open interest changes of -50595, 5562, and 2948 respectively [2]. - Spreads: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -68, -25, and 93 respectively, compared to previous values of -64, -41, and 105. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -81, -14, and 95 respectively, compared to previous values of -98, -42, and 140 [2]. Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2139 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 584 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6150 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with previous values of 2118 yuan/ton, 6050 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6140 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2]. - Midstream: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 6850 - 7250 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6950 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 and 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7350 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6300 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Friday (November 28), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.55 per barrel, down $0.10 or 0.17% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.27 - $59.64. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.2 per barrel, down $0.14 or 0.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.05 - $63.76 [2]