黑色建材日报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to operate within an oscillatory range, with high overall inventory and existing structural contradictions [5]. - The ferroalloy shows a weak trend, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes [9]. - The industrial silicon market presents a situation of weak supply and demand with limited marginal changes, and the price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new - energy varieties [13]. - The polysilicon market has obvious contradictions between reality and expectation, and the inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. Attention should be paid to the final implementation of the platform company [15]. - The glass industry is still at the bottom - exploring stage, and the market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high levels [18]. - The soda ash price is expected to remain stable in the short term, but it should be regarded as bearish before the demand side improves significantly [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.549%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.273%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, and inventory continued to be depleted, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand slightly declined, and inventory was only slightly depleted [2]. - South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese hot - rolled thick steel plates will affect steel exports to some extent [2]. Iron Ore - Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.00 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of - 0.69% (- 5.50), and the position changed by - 23,368 lots to 391,000 lots. The weighted position was 920,100 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 49.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.87% [4]. - Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and the steel mill profitability rate dropped to a near - three - year low. The port inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory was slightly consumed [5]. - The iron ore overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support. The price is expected to operate within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Quotes - On November 28, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.25%, at 5,612 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of 208 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed flat at 5,390 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,400 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated narrowly at the lower edge of the range, and the ferrosilicon price slowly declined [8]. - Strategy Views - The market sentiment has improved, but the black - metal sector is still weak, and the ferroalloy is also affected. There's no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [9]. - The manganese silicon fundamentals are not ideal, and it is difficult to drive the price down significantly. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. The ferrosilicon supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9,130 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.16% (+ 15). The weighted contract position changed by - 28,495 lots to 381,451 lots [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 56,425 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 2.15% (+ 1,190). The weighted contract position changed by + 5,632 lots to 260,870 lots [14]. - Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon has been declining, the demand from polysilicon is weakening, the demand from silicone is stable in the short term, and the cost support is stable. The price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new - energy varieties [13]. - The polysilicon production is expected to decline in December, the downstream silicon wafer production cut is expected to increase, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. The price is affected by the delivery game and the platform company's implementation expectations [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1,041 yuan/ton on Friday, up 0.39% (+ 4). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 941,000 boxes week - on - week (- 1.49%) [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1,176 yuan/ton on Friday, up 0.09% (+ 1). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 57,000 tons week - on - week (- 1.49%) [19]. - Strategy Views - The glass supply has shrunk, the market sentiment has briefly improved, but the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is still light, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations [18]. - The soda ash production load has slightly increased, the inventory has slightly decreased, and the price is supported by cost and pending orders. It is expected to remain stable in the short term, but should be regarded as bearish before the demand improves [20].