纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage, with a balanced supply and demand situation, high inventory, and weak downstream demand suppressing prices, while cost support limits the downside. The glass futures market is in a downward trend, with a supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and a weak short - term outlook. [8][32] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. - Trend logic: The domestic soda ash market was stable last week, with prices in some regions slightly increasing. Supply recovered as maintenance facilities resumed operation, and demand was divided (light soda ash was in short supply in some areas, while heavy soda ash was weak due to the decline in the glass industry's operation rate). The cost and pending orders supported the price. The futures price was volatile at a low level, and the supply - demand pattern was loose. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. [8] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The domestic soda ash market was stable, with light soda ash demand being stable and heavy soda ash being weak. Supply decreased slightly due to maintenance but was generally sufficient. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong cost, and it was expected that SA2601 would operate in the range of 1100 - 1250. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soda ash spot market was stable last week, with prices in some regions slightly increasing. Supply gradually recovered, demand was divided, and prices were stable under cost and order support. The futures market was volatile at a low level, and it was expected that SA2601 would operate in the range of 1100 - 1250. [11][12] 3.1.3 Relevant Data - Relevant data includes China's weekly soda ash production, operating rate, light and heavy soda ash inventory, basis (daily), and the production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China (weekly). The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is slightly bearish, the capital is basically stable, and the risk of a market reversal is high. [13][17][24] 3.2 Glass Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The glass is in a volatile downward trend. - Trend logic: The domestic float glass market declined last week, with prices in various regions dropping by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, enterprises increased their inventory - clearing pressure, and the overall inventory was in an accumulating trend. The futures price continued to hit new lows. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to stay in an empty position and wait and see. [32] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The domestic float glass market was weak, with prices stable or decreasing. Supply was sufficient, but downstream orders were limited. The cost provided support, but the market lacked positive factors, and the futures market was in a weak and volatile trend. - This week's strategy suggestion: The float glass market was weak last week, with spot prices generally falling. Supply was abundant, demand was weak, and inventory pressure remained. The futures market was in a downward trend, and it was expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. [35][36] 3.2.3 Relevant Data - Relevant data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis (daily), and end - of - week inventory. The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is strongly bearish, the capital outflow is large, and the risk of a market reversal is extremely high. [37][42][49]