宏观金融数据日报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Market Data - Interest Rates: DROO1 closed at 1.30 with a -0.81 bp change, DR007 at 1.47 with a 2.04 bp change, GC001 at 1.55 with a 16.50 bp change, GC007 at 1.53 with a 1.00 bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year国债 at 1.40 with a -0.81 bp change, 5 - year国债 at 1.62 with a -0.95 bp change, 10 - year国债 at 1.84 with a -1.04 bp change, and 10 - year美债 at 4.02 with a 2.00 bp change [4] - Bond Market: Last week, the central bank conducted 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. With 1676 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 164.2 billion yuan. Also, 900 billion yuan of MLF and 300 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases matured, while the central bank carried out 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations and 200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders [4] - This Week's Central Bank Operations: This week, 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 338.7 billion, 302.1 billion, 213.3 billion, 356.4 billion, and 301.3 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] 2. Stock Index Market - Index Performance: The CSI 300 closed at 4527 with a 0.25% change, the SSE 50 at 2970 with a -0.09% change, the CSI 500 at 7032 with a 1.15% change, and the CSI 1000 at 7334 with a 1.06% change. For futures, IF当月 closed at 4506 with a 0.3% change, IH当月 at 2963 with no change, IC当月 at 6974 with a 1.1% change, and IM当月 at 7261 with a 1.1% change [6] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: IF trading volume was 90267 with a -10.5% change and open interest was 258622 with a -2.1% change; IH trading volume was 38726 with a -8.9% change and open interest was 89179 with a -3.4% change; IC trading volume was 106633 with a -5.6% change and open interest was 248680 with a -2.3% change; IM trading volume was 174822 with a -4.7% change and open interest was 359979 with a -1.1% change [6] - Last Week's Index Performance: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.64% to 4526.7, the SSE 50 rose 0.47% to 2969.6, the CSI 500 rose 3.14% to 7031.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 3.77% to 7334.2. Most Shenwan primary industry indices rose, with communication (8.7%), electronics (6%), comprehensive (4.4%), media (4.2%), and light manufacturing (4.2%) leading the gains, while only banking (-0.6%) and transportation (-0.5%) declined. A - share daily trading volumes were 1584.3 billion, 1652.7 billion, 1615.8 billion, 1537.7 billion, and 1435.2 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 134.74 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] 3. PMI Data and Market Outlook - PMI Data: China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2% (previous value 49%), with a slight repair in supply and demand, a significant increase in the export index, and the supply - demand gap narrowing to 0.8 pct. However, the non - manufacturing business activity index fell to the contraction range at 49.5% (previous value 50.1%) [7] - Market Outlook: The recent market adjustment provides an opportunity to layout for the further upward movement of stock indices next year. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the market adjustment and use the discount structure of stock index futures to improve the winning rate of long - term investments. The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in mid - to late December, which will analyze the current economic situation and plan the economic work for 2026, providing key guidance for next year's policy focus and market capital layout [7] 4. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF: The premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 8.85%, 6.19%, 3.98%, and 4.10% respectively [8] - IH: The premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 4.15%, 2.67%, 1.19%, and 1.36% respectively [8] - IC: The premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.67%, 12.54%, 10.88%, and 11.35% respectively [8] - IM: The premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 19.23%, 15.74%, 13.94%, and 13.54% respectively [8]