贵金属数据日报-20251201

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITG Guomao Futures [3] - Researcher: Baishuna from the Precious Metals and New Energy Research Center [5] - Investment Consulting Number: Z0013700 [5] - Qualification Number: F3023916 [5] Group 2: Price Tracking Inner and Outer Market Gold and Silver Price Tracking (15:00 prices) - On November 28, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $4,186.79 per ounce, London Silver Spot at $53.99 per ounce, COMEX Gold at $4,221.30 per ounce, COMEX Silver at $54.65 per ounce, AU2512 at 949.66 yuan per gram, AG2512 at 12,724 yuan per kilogram, AU (T+D) at 948.04 yuan per gram, and AG (T+D) at 12,671 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Compared to November 27, 2025, the price increases were 0.7%, 1.1%, 0.8%, 1.3%, 0.7%, 1.7%, 0.7%, and 1.4% respectively [5]. Spread/Ratio Price Tracking (15:00 prices) - On November 28, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was -1.62 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was -53 yuan per kilogram, the gold inner - outer (TD - London) spread was -4.84 yuan per gram, the silver inner - outer (TD - London) spread was -1,075 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 74.64, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 77.24, AU2602 - 2512 was 4.26 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 was 3 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Compared to November 27, 2025, the price increases were 1.2%, 307.7%, 17.3%, -1.9%, -1.0%, -0.5%, 16.4%, and -78.6% respectively [5]. Group 3: Position and Inventory Data Position Data - On November 28, 2025, the Gold ETF - SPDR was 1,045.43 tons, the Silver ETF - SLV was 15,610.5435 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX Gold was 278,405 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 74,489 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 203,916 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX Silver was 67,041 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 23,860 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 43,181 contracts [5]. - Compared to November 26, 2025, the changes were 0.00%, 0.18%, -7.44%, 8.20%, -12.09%, -0.93%, 11.23%, and -6.57% respectively [5]. Inventory Data - On November 28, 2025, the SHFE Gold inventory was 90,873 kilograms, the SHFE Silver inventory was 558,882 kilograms, the COMEX Gold inventory was 36,357,103 troy ounces, and the COMEX Silver inventory was 456,772,056 troy ounces [5]. - Compared to November 26 - 27, 2025, the changes were 0.50%, 2.18%, -0.57%, and -0.29% respectively [5]. Group 4: Interest Rates/Foreign Exchange/Restock Market - On November 28, 2025, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate was 7.08, the US dollar index was 99.44, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, the VIX was 16.35, the S&P 500 was 6,849.09, and NYMEX crude oil was 58.48 [5]. - Compared to November 26 - 27, 2025, the changes were 0.01%, -0.15%, 0.58%, 0.50%, -4.89%, 0.54%, and -0.12% respectively [5]. Group 5: Market Review - On November 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.76% to 953.92 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.21% to 12,727 yuan per kilogram. On the night of the previous Friday, gold and silver prices rose. Shanghai silver rose 5.17% to 13,191 yuan per kilogram, hitting a record high; Shanghai gold rose 0.97% to 959.82 yuan per gram [3]. Group 6: Influencing Factors Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - Due to increased supply concerns, the squeeze - out risk in the silver market has been fermenting. Coupled with the overseas Thanksgiving holiday, poor market liquidity, and a glitch in the QKE trading system, market speculative sentiment was further amplified, pushing silver prices up significantly. London spot silver rose over 5% last Friday, breaking through the $56 per ounce mark, COMEX silver rose over 6% and broke through the $57 per ounce mark, and Shanghai silver futures rose over 8% and broke through the 13,000 yuan per kilogram mark, with all three markets hitting new record highs [6]. - Gold was also supported by the sentiment from the silver squeeze - out and the high probability of a Fed rate cut in December, showing a strong performance. In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong under the background of the silver squeeze - out. However, in December, attention should be paid to the December silver delivery situation on the SHFE and the changes in inventory. If the supply shortage eases or the December delivery volume in New York is not as large as the market rumor, silver prices may face significant fluctuations [6]. - In the short - term strategy, existing long positions can be held, while for those not yet in the market, gold can be bought on dips, and participation in silver should be cautious [6]. Group 7: Medium - to - Long - Term View - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. Global central bank gold purchases continue. Therefore, the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up. Long - term investors are advised to mainly allocate by buying on dips [6].