美降息预期增、矿端存约束，沪铜预计偏强：铜周报20251130-20251201

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251130: Increased Expectations of US Interest Rate Cuts and Constraints at the Mine End, Shanghai Copper Expected to Be Bullish [1] Core View - With increased expectations of US interest rate cuts and constraints at the mine end, Shanghai copper is expected to be bullish [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - The futures market strengthened, suppressing copper spot purchases; tight supply of some goods led to an increase in spot premiums and discounts [11] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened [12] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.43/ton week - on - week to -$42.75/ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the copper concentrate inventory at ten ports increased by 18,200 tons week - on - week to 723,100 tons [19] - The spread between refined and scrap copper strengthened week - on - week [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in November is expected to decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [23] - In October, China imported 279,900 tons of refined copper and exported 65,900 tons, with a net import of 214,000 tons [25] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory continued to decrease week - on - week, and the bonded area inventory decreased [27] - LME copper inventory continued to accumulate, and COMEX copper inventory also continued to accumulate [28] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week. The rebound in the futures market suppressed the downstream purchasing sentiment [31] - From November 1st to 23rd, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 3% year - on - year and by 8% compared with the same period last month [33] - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed capacity of solar power generation nationwide was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% [34] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume in the same period last year [36] Macroeconomic Data - In October, China's new social financing was 810 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [40] - In the US, the core PPI in September increased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than expected [43] - Fed officials have successively issued dovish statements [44]