碳酸锂日评：逢高沽空-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The current supply and demand are both strong. With the repeated news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi, the weekly output of lithium carbonate at a high level, and the strong wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players, the spot and futures markets have light trading volume, weakening power demand, and the exchange taking measures to cool down the market. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data - Prices: On November 28, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 94,560 yuan/ton, 94,640 yuan/ton, 94,800 yuan/ton, and 94,800 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 600 yuan/ton, 640 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The closing price of the active contract was 96,420 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract was 580,962 lots, a decrease of 160,501 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 526,998 lots, an increase of 19,116 lots [1] - Inventory: The inventory was 5,441 tons, a decrease of 21,340 tons compared to the previous day [1] - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was - 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton; the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 2,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [1] 2. Lithium - Related Product Prices - Lithium Ore: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,150 US dollars/ton, an increase of 24 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day. The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,665 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] - Lithium Compounds: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 93,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 91,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 10.65 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade coarse - particle lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic) was 82,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade micron - powder lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic) was 86,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton [1] - Other Products: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%, domestic) was 167,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. The prices of various ternary precursors and materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, negative electrode materials, electrolytes, and cobalt - related products also had corresponding changes [1] 3. SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory - On November 28, 2025, the inventory of smelters was 24,324 tons, a decrease of 1,780 tons compared to the previous week; the inventory of downstream players was 41,984 tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons; the inventory of other sources was 49,660 tons, an increase of 1,780 tons; the total inventory was 115,968 tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons [1] 4. Industry News - On November 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a symposium for power and energy - storage battery manufacturing enterprises to discuss regulating the competition order of the industry and promoting high - quality development. It plans to introduce targeted policies, regulate non - rational competition, strengthen capacity monitoring, and promote scientific capacity layout and overseas expansion of enterprises [1] - Frontier Lithium Inc. announced its interim financial results as of September 30, 2025, with cash and cash equivalents of 14.9 million US dollars. The feasibility study of its PAK lithium project's mine and concentrator was completed on July 9, 2025. The company has initiated a feasibility study on a lithium conversion facility, expected to be completed in the first half of 2027. The project is expected to create 216,300 full - time equivalent jobs and contribute 1.5 billion US dollars to GDP during the 3 - year construction period [1] 5. Market Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, with a decline in the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes and an increase in the production from other sources. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica remained stable [1] - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In November, the production plan of lithium iron phosphate increased, while that of lithium manganate decreased. The production of power batteries rebounded last week. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C product shipments weakened, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]