所长早读-20251201

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The economic sentiment level in China is generally stable. In November, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but has been below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the composite PMI output index decreased by 0.3 percentage points. Some sub - indicators show initial signs of economic recovery, but policy support is still needed to boost demand [8]. - For LPG, the short - term supply is tight, but the medium - to - long - term trend is under pressure. For propylene, the supply - demand pattern remains loose [12]. - It is recommended to grasp the opportunity to allocate precious metals on dips, especially silver with a tight spot structure [13]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was 50.0% (up 0.3 percentage points), the new orders index was 49.2% (up 0.4 percentage points), the raw material inventory index was 47.3% (unchanged), the employment index was 48.4% (up 0.1 percentage points), and the supplier delivery time index was 50.1% (up 0.1 percentage points). The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% (down 0.6 percentage points), and the composite PMI output index was 49.7% (down 0.3 percentage points) [8]. 2. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The short - term price increase of the PG main contract was due to factors such as increased civilian demand in winter, supply reduction from Middle - East maintenance, strong external paper - cargo prices, and unexpectedly strong chemical demand. However, the chemical demand is expected to weaken, North American supply may increase, and the long - term trend is under pressure due to slower downstream chemical production growth and increased supply from the Middle East and the US in 2026 [12]. - Propylene: The Shandong spot price first rose and then fell last week. After the cost - side propane strengthened, it broke away from the restriction of PP. But now the positive factors have been fully digested, the downstream is in serious losses, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [12]. 3. Silver - The long - term allocation logic of precious metals remains unchanged. One should seize the opportunity to allocate silver when the risk sentiment improves marginally, taking advantage of its high elasticity. Although the silver spot contradiction is normal, the current overseas macro - liquidity improvement logic is stronger than the economic demand side [13]. 4. Other Commodities - Gold: The expectation of interest - rate cuts has rebounded [16]. - Copper: The spot price has strengthened, pulling up the price. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026 [24][26]. - Zinc: There is support at the bottom [16]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price [16]. - Tin: There are new disturbances in supply [16]. - Aluminum: It is running strongly, while the fundamental contradiction of alumina remains unresolved, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [16][37]. - Nickel: The fundamentals limit the upside elasticity, and it is oscillating at a low level. Stainless steel has high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside space [41]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is oscillating at a high level, and attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts [46]. - Industrial Silicon: It is in a range - bound market. For polysilicon, attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts [50]. - Iron Ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [16][53]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They are oscillating at a low level [16][55]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide: Silicon ferrosilicon is affected by market sentiment and oscillating at a low level, while manganese silicide has a firm ore - end price and is also oscillating at a low level [59]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They are in a wide - range oscillation [16][63].