海外策略周报：降息预期升温，美股触底反弹-20251201

Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts, driven by ongoing negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a rebound in U.S. stocks and gold prices, while the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices declined. The MSCI global stock index rose by 3.54%, with notable performances from the Russell 2000 (up 5.5%) and Nasdaq (up 4.9%) [2][16][22] - U.S. macroeconomic indicators show a significant decline in retail sales for September, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, down from 0.6% previously. Most retail categories experienced a slowdown, particularly in leisure goods, clothing, and automotive sales, although dining out remained strong [3][4][5] - The report notes that the U.S. job market remains weak, with initial jobless claims falling to their lowest level since April 2025, while the ADP employment figures have shown negative growth. The market anticipates an 86.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from 71.0% the previous week [10][11][12] - The report discusses potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership, with Hasset emerging as a leading candidate for the Fed Chair position, advocating for immediate rate cuts based on current economic data [2][12] - The report suggests that the recent rebound in U.S. stocks is primarily driven by rising rate cut expectations and market sentiment recovery rather than fundamental economic improvements. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the potential impact of the December economic policy meeting in China [2][22] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales for September showed a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, significantly lower than the previous month's 0.6%. Key categories such as leisure goods, clothing, and automotive sales saw notable declines, while dining out remained robust [3][4][5] - The report indicates that the initial jobless claims in November fell to 216,000, the lowest since April 2025, while the ADP employment figures have consistently shown negative growth since late October [10][11][12] Market Performance - The report notes that the U.S. stock market has rebounded, with the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq leading the gains. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also saw increases of 3.7% and 3.2%, respectively [2][22] - In terms of asset performance, the report highlights a decline in the U.S. dollar index by 0.71% to 99.44, while COMEX gold prices increased by 4.77% [21][22] - The report emphasizes that the technology sector has led the market rally, with significant contributions from Chinese solar and OLED concepts [28][33]