铝产业链周报-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro sentiment has improved, with the market remaining stable during the week and experiencing a significant increase in positions on Friday night. It may continue the short - term rebound trend. It is recommended to reduce long positions after the price rebounds to a high level [3]. - The overall demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the start - up rate is expected to remain under pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - Bauxite: The bauxite prices in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore remained stable at $70.5 per dry ton week - on - week. The spot supply of imported ore is expected to increase in December, and the ore price is expected to be under pressure [3][10]. - Alumina: The operating capacity increased by 600,000 tons week - on - week to 96.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 71,000 tons week - on - week to 4.415 million tons. Most alumina enterprises still maintain high - yield and full - production operations [3][13]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The operating capacity increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 44.434 million tons. Some electrolytic cells in Shanxi Shuozhou Energy were shut down for technological transformation, and individual aluminum plants in Xinjiang reduced production due to environmental protection control. New production capacities are being put into operation [3][22]. - Demand: The start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.3% week - on - week to 62.3%. The aluminum cable industry continued to recover moderately, and the start - up rates of the profile and primary aluminum alloy industries increased. However, the overall demand is entering the off - season [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased during the week. In the recycled cast aluminum alloy sector, the full orders in the automobile sector drove up the capacity utilization rate [3]. 2. Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: It is recommended to trade in the bottom range [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum: It is recommended to reduce long positions after the price rebounds to a high level [4]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended to reduce long positions after the price rebounds to a high level [4]. 3. Aluminum Bauxite - The bauxite prices in Shanxi and Henan are stable. Issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and enhanced safety and environmental protection supervision still restrict the resumption of production of many mines [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore remained stable, but the expected increase in supply in December will put pressure on the price. December is the time for signing long - term contracts for 2025 and determining the first - quarter price, and the supply - demand expectation is poor [10]. 4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 96.7 million tons (an increase of 600,000 tons week - on - week), and the start - up rate was 83.8%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2,831.9 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan per ton week - on - week [13]. - The national alumina inventory increased, and most enterprises maintained high - yield operations. High - cost alumina enterprises are in a dilemma of deciding whether to reduce production [13]. 5. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity was 45.242 million tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 44.434 million tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week) [22]. - There were capacity reductions and new capacity investments. Shanxi Shuozhou Energy carried out technological transformation, and Xinjiang had production cuts. New capacities of Tianshan Aluminum and Zha Aluminum are being put into operation [22]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.9% week - on - week to 61.5%. The orders in the automobile field are full, but the industry's overall start - up rate is restricted by high raw material prices and short - term supply shortages [36]. 7. Downstream Start - up - The start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.3% week - on - week to 62.3% [48]. - Aluminum Profiles: The start - up rate increased by 0.4% week - on - week to 52.5%. The demand for automotive profiles is good, but the construction profiles are still in a downturn [48]. - Aluminum Plate and Strip: The start - up rate remained stable at 66.4%. The environmental protection restrictions in the Central Plains were temporarily lifted, but the year - end air pollution control affected transportation and orders [48]. - Aluminum Cables: The start - up rate increased by 0.6% week - on - week to 63%. The current orders have improved slightly, but the grid's提货persistence is expected to weaken [51]. - Primary Aluminum Alloy: The start - up rate increased by 0.4% week - on - week to 60.2%. The downstream manufacturing orders increased slightly, and the industry is in the traditional peak season [51].