进口卸货减少以及货物回流，港口库存出现下跌

Report Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is a bullish consolidation [2] Core View - This week, the methanol market saw significant long - short battles, centered around regional disparities and core supply - demand contradictions. Inland prices have strong resilience in the short - term due to tight supply and pre - holiday stocking demand. Although the port is suppressed by high inventory, potential Middle East maintenance expectations and some downstream replenishment demand provide support. The cost side is generally stable with some support, but the profitability differentiation in downstream industries may limit the upside potential. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage opportunities between inland and port price differences and closely monitor the Middle East situation, oil price fluctuations, and pre - holiday stocking progress. In the short term, adopt a range - trading approach and avoid over - chasing the upside [2] Summary of Each Section Supply - This week, the methanol supply side showed a stable situation under the game of supply and demand. Domestically, some new plant maintenance and the resumption of previously shut - down plants led to a slight fluctuation in the overall operating load, limiting supply growth. At the import end, the short - term import volume shrank due to factors like lower - than - expected unloading of foreign vessels, weakening the supply replenishment. In the port market, supported by inland demand and cargo back - flow, the port inventory decreased significantly this week but remained at a relatively high level. Next week, with the expected increase in arrivals, there may be pressure to build up inventory. Overall, domestic supply remained stable due to the game of plant start - stop, and the short - term import contraction interacted with port inventory depletion [2] Demand - This week, methanol demand generally showed a pattern of "major rigid demand providing a base, traditional downstream sectors differentiating". The load of the main downstream methanol - to - olefins (MTO) adjusted slightly, with stable external procurement demand. Traditional downstream sectors were divided. Some products saw increased demand due to plant recovery or terminal rigid demand, while others had limited demand contribution due to inventory pressure or weak terminal consumption. Regionally, inland downstream procurement enthusiasm improved slightly due to port price transmission and short - term buying sentiment, while coastal areas had rigid demand replenishment but insufficient trading volume, with overall demand being moderate and not strongly driving the market [2] Inventory - This week, methanol inventory generally showed a pattern of "significant port depletion, regional differentiation inland". At the port end, inventory decreased significantly due to slower unloading of foreign vessels and cargo back - flow for pick - up supported by inland demand, but it was still at a relatively high level, and there was pressure to build up inventory next week. In the inland market, inventory performance varied. Some regions saw inventory decline due to plant load reduction and smooth sales, while others had a slight inventory build - up due to factors like poor long - term contract pick - up and reduced olefins external procurement demand, but there were no large - scale extreme inventory situations [2] Methanol Profit - This week, methanol industry profits showed obvious process differentiation. The cost - price game dominated the profit trend. For coal - to - methanol, raw coal prices fluctuated slightly, with relatively stable cost support. Although the methanol spot price rebounded slightly, the profit improvement was limited, remaining in a weak range. Natural gas - to - methanol faced persistent cost pressure due to high raw material gas prices, and the profit continued to be under pressure as the methanol price increase could not cover the cost increase. Coke - oven gas - to - methanol achieved a small profit repair due to its low - cost advantage and local methanol price increases [2] Downstream Profit - This week, methanol downstream profits showed significant differentiation. Most industries' profits were under pressure due to the cost increase driven by the rising methanol price. Among them, the profit of methanol - to - olefins (MTO) declined notably, and the profits of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and chloromethane also narrowed, mainly because of insufficient terminal demand support and difficulty in cost transmission to the terminal. A few industries performed well, such as glacial acetic acid, whose profit improved due to supply reduction from some plant maintenance and downstream stocking demand; MTBE also had a slight profit repair [2] Investment View - The market is expected to have a bullish consolidation. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage opportunities between inland and port price differences and closely follow the Middle East situation, oil price fluctuations, and pre - holiday stocking progress. In the short term, use a range - trading approach and avoid over - chasing the upside [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Bullish consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Areas to watch: Downstream demand, olefins external procurement, spring maintenance situation, geopolitics [2] Spot Prices - The report provides methanol spot prices in different regions on November 26 - 28, 2025, including prices in Taicang (import, different time periods), Hebei, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Sichuan, Dongying, Shandong (southern region), Sichuan - Chongqing region, Anhui, Shaanxi, and Shanxi, along with their daily and one - day - ago price changes and percentage changes [4] Market Charts - The report includes charts of the methanol futures main contract (showing price and trading volume), basis and monthly spread, methanol production, plant operating rate, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream profit and operating rate from 2020 - 2025 [5][8][14][26][38][49]