合成橡胶投资周报：主流供价大幅下调，BR维持低位震荡运行-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the butadiene rubber industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The butadiene production has declined, and the output of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually recovering. The cost - side support is insufficient, the mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has been significantly reduced, the synthetic processing profit is still good, and the futures price is oscillating [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - As of November 27, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,400 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton. The butadiene market fluctuated narrowly, lacking cost - side support. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber remained good. The domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber slightly decreased, but the supply of private resources was abundant. The downstream continued to push down prices, and the transaction prices of private resources in North China were suppressed near 10,000 yuan. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's cis - butadiene rubber were reduced, and high - price quotations gradually declined, with mostly small orders for rigid demand [6] 3.2 Supply - Butadiene: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [data unclear] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [data unclear]%. During the week, some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and some plants of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou were shut down for maintenance. Meanwhile, Shenghong Refining & Chemical reduced its load, resulting in a decline in production [3] - Cis - butadiene rubber: The Maoming Petrochemical cis - butadiene rubber plant was under regular maintenance, and the cis - butadiene rubber plants of Zhenhua New Materials and Zhejiang Petrochemical were expected to gradually resume production after restarting [3] 3.3 Demand - Semi - steel tires: The sales of semi - steel winter tires were average, with sufficient social inventory. Due to less snowfall, demand did not increase significantly, channel inventory digestion was slow, and the replenishment willingness was low. For all - season tires, the overall transaction remained dull, with weak and stable market demand. At the end of the month, agents had some replenishment needs [3] - All - steel tires: The market transactions became weaker, affected by the off - season and shortage of working capital. However, due to the pressure of purchase tasks at the end of the month, agents still replenished goods, and also pushed goods to channels to relieve their own inventory pressure. The overall market transaction price decreased steadily, with self - promotion and negotiation room [3] 3.4 Inventory - Butadiene: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 47,300 tons, a [data unclear]% increase from the previous week. Some plants were under maintenance and reduced load during the week, so the enterprise inventory did not increase significantly. Recently, ship cargoes continued to arrive at the port, and some trade volumes were transferred slowly. The port inventory may remain under pressure in the short term [3] - Cis - butadiene rubber: The inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 32,440 tons, a [data unclear]% increase from the previous week. The supply of private resources was sufficient, the downstream was determined to push down prices, the negotiation focus of spot goods continued to be under pressure, and the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises both increased [3] 3.5 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 415 yuan/ton, in East China was - 265 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 215 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Spread/Price Ratio - The spread between RU - BR was 4,995 yuan/ton ([data unclear]%), the spread between NR - BR was 1,860 yuan/ton ([data unclear]), and the price ratio of BR - SC was - 0.15% [3] 3.7 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation of butene was - 1,814 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction was 587 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 152.08 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 5.98% [3] 3.8 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The US non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The US Department of Labor revised down the non - farm payroll data for July and August. The market was optimistic about the upcoming Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, which dominated the recent oil price trend. The geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela was tense, and the US military might take land actions. Sino - Japanese relations deteriorated due to the Japanese Prime Minister's remarks on the Taiwan issue, and China took corresponding counter - measures. The floods in Thailand were positive for the rubber price sentiment, but due to high supply and inventory, the increase in the futures price was small [3] 3.9 Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment view: Neutral [3] - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, there is no recommendation. For arbitrage, pay attention to going long on BR and shorting NR/RU. Risks to focus on include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3]