长江期货贵金属周报：降息预期升温，价格延续反弹-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Fed officials' dovish statements have increased market expectations of a December rate cut and the number of rate cuts next year, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices, with silver showing strong performance. The expected end - point of this round of rate cuts has been lowered. The influence of Trump on the Fed's independence is evident, and the US employment situation is slowing. Powell believes that changing economic risks provide more reasons for rate cuts, and the rate - cut process will continue. With weakening US economic data and concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Supported by rate - cut expectations and safe - haven demand, the shortage of silver现货 continues, and precious metal prices are expected to be supported. Platinum and palladium futures prices are expected to continue a relatively strong and volatile trend after the domestic listing and the repair of the price difference with the overseas market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Fed officials' dovish statements and rising rate - cut expectations led to a rebound in the price of US gold. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4,256 per ounce, up 4.8% for the week. The upper pressure level is $4,350, and the lower support level is $4,170 [6]. - Fed officials' dovish statements, rising rate - cut expectations, and the continued shortage of silver现货 led to a rebound in the price of US silver. As of last Friday, it had a weekly gain of 13.4%, closing at $57.1 per ounce. The lower support level is $55, and the upper pressure level is $60 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The factors mentioned above support the precious metal prices. The price of platinum and palladium futures is expected to continue a relatively strong and volatile trend. In terms of inventory and position: Comex gold inventory decreased by 12,661.56 kg to 1,130,833.15 kg, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 447 kg to 90,873 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 122,252.50 kg to 14,207,209.64 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 39,611 kg to 558,882 kg. This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 197,731 lots, a decrease of 27,471 lots from last week; the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 40,567 lots, a decrease of 3,155 lots from last week. It is expected that the price will continue to be relatively strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [11][13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The content mainly presents various macro - economic indicator charts, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar and pound - US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance sheet scale, WTI crude oil futures price trends, etc., but no specific analysis conclusions are given [15][17][19] 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29 was 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 220,000 [26] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US Treasury Secretary Besent will conclude the second - round interview for the new Fed chairman later that day, and Trump may announce the candidate before Christmas. Bloomberg reported that Trump's allies and advisors think White House economic advisor Hassett is the most likely candidate, but the White House refuted the report. - The minutes of the European Central Bank's October 29 - 30 meeting showed that policymakers were not eager to cut rates due to high uncertainty, and some officials even thought no further easing was needed. - The Fed said that US economic activity has changed little in recent weeks, about half of the 12 regional Fed districts reported weakening employment and declining consumer spending, which may increase concerns about the labor market weakness as the next rate decision approaches [27] 3.6 Inventory - Comex gold inventory decreased by 12,661.56 kg to 1,130,833.15 kg, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 447 kg to 90,873 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 122,252.50 kg to 14,207,209.64 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 39,611 kg to 558,882 kg [13][32] 3.7 Fund Position - As of October 14, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 197,731 lots, a decrease of 27,471 lots from last week; the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 40,567 lots, a decrease of 3,155 lots from last week [13][36] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Monday (December 1), at 23:00, the US November ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. - On Wednesday (December 3), at 21:15, the change in the US November ADP employment number will be announced. - On Friday (December 5), at 23:00, the US September personal spending monthly rate will be released [38]