碳酸锂周报：下游排产环增，价格延续震荡-20251201

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply and demand of lithium carbonate maintain a tight balance, with strong downstream demand. It is expected that subsequent lithium salt imports from South America will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good, and the cathode production schedule in November is expected to increase by 2% month - on - month, following a 4% month - on - month increase in October. The risk of mining licenses in Yichun persists, and lithium extraction from ore continues to increase production under the background of profit restoration, leading to an upward shift in the cost center. The expectation of the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine within the year has failed, and the downstream production schedule exceeds expectations. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. Downstream enterprises are actively purchasing lithium carbonate, and the destocking continues. However, the inventory of traders is accumulating. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views 3.1.1. Supply and Demand Conditions - Supply: Last week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 440 tons to 23,875 tons, and the output in November increased by 3% month - on - month to 103,740 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has not resumed production, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditures for the 25th fiscal year. In October 2025, China imported 652,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3%. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium concentrate imported from Australia in October decreased by 15% month - on - month, imports from Zimbabwe were 150,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 41%, and imports from Nigeria were 120,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month. In October, 23,881 tons of lithium carbonate were imported, a month - on - month increase of 21.9%, with 14,800 tons from Chile, accounting for 62%. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure. [5] - Demand: The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, with the production schedule of large battery cell factories increasing by 8% in September. In October, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 170.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 50.5%. The total export of power and other batteries was 28.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 33.5%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 166.0 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 50.8%. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of the sales volume of the new energy vehicle market in China. [6] - Inventory: This week, the lithium carbonate inventory showed a destocking state. The factory inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 680 tons, the market inventory increased by 20,778 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 21,407 tons. [6] 3.1.2. Strategy Suggestions - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo Mine remains shut down. The domestic lithium carbonate output in November increased by 3% month - on - month. In October, the import of lithium concentrate was 652,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3%. The total import of lithium carbonate in October was about 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 3%. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine. Downstream enterprises are actively purchasing lithium carbonate, and the destocking continues, but the inventory of traders is accumulating. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate. [7] 3.2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot tax - inclusive average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly factory inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production proportion of lithium carbonate from different raw materials in October 2024, difference between domestic power battery production and loading volume, average production cost of lithium carbonate, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate, monthly production of ternary materials, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium carbonate, and market price of ternary material 8 - series NCA type. However, specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the data trends and time periods are shown in the charts. 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