沪铜日评20251201：美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价-20251201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The weak U.S. employment performance has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Copper Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 87,430, with a trading volume of 94,508 lots, an open interest of 218,257 lots, and an inventory of 35,244 tons. The price increased by 440 compared to the previous day, the trading volume decreased by 810 lots, the open interest increased by 7,573 lots, and the inventory decreased by 629 tons [3] - London Copper: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic disk) on November 28, 2025, was 11,175.5, up 245.5 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 44.69, up 28.13 from the previous day, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 195, up 28.75 from the previous day [3] - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on November 28, 2025, was 5.278, up 0.17 from November 25. The total inventory was 418,727, an increase of 2,847 from November 25 [3] 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased month - on - month [3] - Demand Side: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods decreased, and that of recycled copper rods remained flat. High copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness [3] - Inventory Side: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper increased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [3] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Short - term, lightly - position, and try to go long on the main contract at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 and the pressure levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 and the pressure level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the pressure level around 5.5 - 6.0 for U.S. copper [3]